616 W Diamond Head Ave · Alton, TX 78573

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1970 7,000 sqft lot $87/sqft · 38% below area Est $266k · 38% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at 616 W Diamondhead Ave in Alton, TX, an inviting and thoughtfully updated home offering space, flexibility, and convenience! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a functional layout with two spacious living areas, ideal for everyday living, gatherings, or creating a dedicated office or flex space. Recent updates provide a refreshed feel, including interior improvements and a clean, modern touch throughout. The centrally located kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating a natural hub for meals and connection. Step outside to a generously sized backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, entertaining, or future enhancements. A detached storage structure adds extra versatility, perfect for storage, hobbies, or workspace. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property offers both comfort and accessibility. Schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Updated home
• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• CENTRALLY LOCATED KITCHEN
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BACKYARD
• DETACHED STORAGE STRUCTURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($489/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.6% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,995 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,500
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -37.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 W La Pointe Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-5%)	2mo	$310,000	$172	74
415 W Campeche Ave	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,025 (+6%)	0mo	$329,000	$162	73
617 W La Pointe Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,744 (-8%)	2mo	$300,000	$172	72
609 W La Pointe Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,617 (-15%)	11mo	$289,000	$179	52
1305 W Combes Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,769 (-7%)	23mo	$250,000	$141	47
1010 W Franklin Ave	0.75mi	3/3.0	2,115 (+11%)	0mo	$295,000	$139	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $91,660
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $266,291
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,617/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,458

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $87	+0% $41	+5% $-6	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-19	+0% $41	+5% $100	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $83	base $41	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 W La Pointe Ave Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2500	$2,300	$0.92	45d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $165,000 Active 990-char remark

    Show marketing remark (990 chars)

    Come take a look at 616 W Diamondhead Ave in Alton, TX, an inviting and thoughtfully updated home offering space, flexibility, and convenience! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a functional layout with two spacious living areas, ideal for everyday living, gatherings, or creating a dedicated office or flex space. Recent updates provide a refreshed feel, including interior improvements and a clean, modern touch throughout. The centrally located kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating a natural hub for meals and connection. Step outside to a generously sized backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, entertaining, or future enhancements. A detached storage structure adds extra versatility, perfect for storage, hobbies, or workspace. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property offers both comfort and accessibility. Schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities this home has to offer!

17. 2025-08-18
    listed $170,000 Active
18. 2025-03-28
    price $175,000
19. 2025-02-14
    listed $185,000 Active
20. 1996-06-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,617 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$403/yr (+$34/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,617
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$543
• After-tax cash flow: $1,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1230
• US rank: #21479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alton, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 44,809
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $170,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $175,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $185,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1996-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,617 · +24.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.