148 Hickory Ridge Dr · St. Robert, MO 65584

$190,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,944 sqft · Townhouse public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2005 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable townhome conveniently located near Fort Leonard Wood! 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 1/2 bathrooms! Huge master bedroom with double closets, and your very own master bath! The kitchen, dining, and living room offers an open floor plan! The kitchen has tons of counter and cabinet space, and the appliances are included! There is an attached 2 car garage, as well as a driveway to accommodate any and all cars you may have! The home has been updated with fresh new carpet, new Pella windows, and more upgrades you have to see! Schedule your showings now, you don't want to miss out!!!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($103/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in St. Robert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waynesville R-VI (town): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #41 of 324 in MO (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waynesville East Elem. (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 929 students, 44% FRL); Waynesville Middle (math 43% / reading 59%, grade C, #62 of 391 statewide, top 16%, 865 students, 45% FRL); Waynesville Sr. High (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #176 of 521 statewide, top 34%, 1,704 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 62 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,226 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,420
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $16,810
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65584

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,137/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $62	+0% $9	+5% $-45	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-50	+0% $9	+5% $68	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $57	base $9	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $190,000 Active
3. 2026-04-15
   historical $190,000
4. 2021-08-12
   soldstatus $148,387
5. 2021-08-05
   soldstatus Closed 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Adorable townhome conveniently located near Fort Leonard Wood! 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 1/2 bathrooms! Huge master bedroom with double closets, and your very own master bath! The kitchen, dining, and living room offers an open floor plan! The kitchen has tons of counter and cabinet space, and the appliances are included! There is an attached 2 car garage, as well as a driveway to accommodate any and all cars you may have! The home has been updated with fresh new carpet, new Pella windows, and more upgrades you have to see! Schedule your showings now, you don't want to miss out!!!

6. 2021-07-05
   status Pending 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Adorable townhome conveniently located near Fort Leonard Wood! 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 1/2 bathrooms! Huge master bedroom with double closets, and your very own master bath! The kitchen, dining, and living room offers an open floor plan! The kitchen has tons of counter and cabinet space, and the appliances are included! There is an attached 2 car garage, as well as a driveway to accommodate any and all cars you may have! The home has been updated with fresh new carpet, new Pella windows, and more upgrades you have to see! Schedule your showings now, you don't want to miss out!!!

7. 2021-06-29
   historical $119,000 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Adorable townhome conveniently located near Fort Leonard Wood! 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 1/2 bathrooms! Huge master bedroom with double closets, and your very own master bath! The kitchen, dining, and living room offers an open floor plan! The kitchen has tons of counter and cabinet space, and the appliances are included! There is an attached 2 car garage, as well as a driveway to accommodate any and all cars you may have! The home has been updated with fresh new carpet, new Pella windows, and more upgrades you have to see! Schedule your showings now, you don't want to miss out!!!

8. 2015-08-24
   soldstatus Closed 664-char remark

   Show marketing remark (664 chars)

   Adorable townhome very conveniently located to Fort Leonard Wood. Be sure to check out all the great features of this very spacious home. 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, huge master bedroom with double closets and your very own master bath. The additional 2 bedrooms are spacious as well. Enjoy the open floor plan of the living room, kitchen and dining. The kitchen features plenty of cabinet and counter space, plus the appliances are included. Two car attached garage. Be sure to look at all the photos of this adorable property and see just how nice it is!! Why consider renting when you can own!!! Call today to find out more details and schedule your showing!!

9. 2015-06-19
   historical 664-char remark

   Show marketing remark (664 chars)

   Adorable townhome very conveniently located to Fort Leonard Wood. Be sure to check out all the great features of this very spacious home. 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, huge master bedroom with double closets and your very own master bath. The additional 2 bedrooms are spacious as well. Enjoy the open floor plan of the living room, kitchen and dining. The kitchen features plenty of cabinet and counter space, plus the appliances are included. Two car attached garage. Be sure to look at all the photos of this adorable property and see just how nice it is!! Why consider renting when you can own!!! Call today to find out more details and schedule your showing!!

10. 2015-06-15
    listed $89,000 Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Adorable townhome very conveniently located to Fort Leonard Wood. Be sure to check out all the great features of this very spacious home. 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, huge master bedroom with double closets and your very own master bath. The additional 2 bedrooms are spacious as well. Enjoy the open floor plan of the living room, kitchen and dining. The kitchen features plenty of cabinet and counter space, plus the appliances are included. Two car attached garage. Be sure to look at all the photos of this adorable property and see just how nice it is!! Why consider renting when you can own!!! Call today to find out more details and schedule your showing!!

11. 2005-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,843 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$706/yr (+$59/mo · 62.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,137
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$772
• After-tax cash flow: $875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waynesville R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2931440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,147
• Composite: 42.36/100
• National rank: #3246
• State rank: #41 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Robert

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Robert, MO
• County: Pulaski County · 25,264 people
• Metro: Fort Leonard Wood, MO
• Population (ZIP): 10,553
• Household income: $63,328
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,214 people
• By 2030: 54,723 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 54,885 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 55,467 · +2.3%
• By 2075: 58,576 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 61,179 · +12.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 4% Korean 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.2% · R 74.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.16%
• Current HPI: 130.0726
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.20%
• Metro: Fort Leonard Wood, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+113.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $190,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $190,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $148,387 Public Records
• 2021-08-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-29 Coming Soon $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-24 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-19 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-15 Listed $89,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,137 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.