110 Red Fox Trl · Shawneeland, VA 22602

$275,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1971 0.46 ac lot Est $301k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will LOVE this adorable cottage in Shawneeland! Owner upgrades in last 5 years include mini-split for heating/cooling, stainless appliances, double oven, dishwasher, new hot water heater, and gorgeous finished entry room! Vaulted ceiling, hardwood flooring, stone fireplace with gas log, and dual lofts for 3rd bedroom and storage. Rear deck and patio overlook fenced yard with raised garden beds. Aqua America water and separate well for outdoor water use. Secure storage shed with electric and ample parking in horseshoe driveway. Enjoy the private lake and all the Shawneeland amenities, just 15 minutes from downtown Winchester! Better hurry. .. .

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Other community fees $660 semi-annually

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Driveway parking (4 spaces total, 4 on driveway)
• Utilities: Electric hot water; Propane available; Water: community and well; Sewer: on-site septic
• Home design: Detached property; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Masonry construction
• Construction: Masonry construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Detached structure; Above-grade outbuilding (shed)
• Exterior features: Rear fencing; Deck(s); Patio(s); Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level; 1 bedroom on upper level
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Wall unit heating; Other heating; Propane (leased) fuel; Ductless/mini-split cooling; Ceiling fans for cooling; Window units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining area; Family room open to kitchen; Wood floors; Master bathroom; Open floor plan; Skylights; Cathedral ceilings; Gas/propane fireplace with mantel (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-4/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Shawneeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#359 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $223k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $208,198 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,125
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Red Fox Trl	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,230 (+12%)	0mo	$275,000	$224	79
111 Dakota Trl	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,029 (-6%)	8mo	$290,000	$282	74
803 Tomahawk Trl	0.13mi	3/1.5	960 (-12%)	1mo	$246,000	$256	73
136 Dakota Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+2%)	15mo	$320,000	$286	66
108 Cheyenne Trl	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,213 (+11%)	6mo	$315,000	$260	60
117 Buffalo Trl	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-5%)	14mo	$290,000	$279	56
109 Gannentaha Trl	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-8%)	23mo	$277,500	$275	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-50,812
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-68,365
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22602

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,061/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $274,937

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   listed $275,000 Active
3. 2026-04-24
   historical $275,000
4. 2021-11-16
   soldstatus $223,000
5. 2021-11-15
   soldstatus $223,000 Closed 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   You will LOVE this adorable cottage in Shawneeland! Owner upgrades in last 5 years include mini-split for heating/cooling, stainless appliances, double oven, dishwasher, new hot water heater, and gorgeous finished entry room! Vaulted ceiling, hardwood flooring, stone fireplace with gas log, and dual lofts for 3rd bedroom and storage. Rear deck and patio overlook fenced yard with raised garden beds. Aqua America water and separate well for outdoor water use. Secure storage shed with electric and ample parking in horseshoe driveway. Enjoy the private lake and all the Shawneeland amenities, just 15 minutes from downtown Winchester! Better hurry. .. .

6. 2021-09-29
   status Pending 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   You will LOVE this adorable cottage in Shawneeland! Owner upgrades in last 5 years include mini-split for heating/cooling, stainless appliances, double oven, dishwasher, new hot water heater, and gorgeous finished entry room! Vaulted ceiling, hardwood flooring, stone fireplace with gas log, and dual lofts for 3rd bedroom and storage. Rear deck and patio overlook fenced yard with raised garden beds. Aqua America water and separate well for outdoor water use. Secure storage shed with electric and ample parking in horseshoe driveway. Enjoy the private lake and all the Shawneeland amenities, just 15 minutes from downtown Winchester! Better hurry. .. .

7. 2021-09-24
   listed $210,000 Active 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   You will LOVE this adorable cottage in Shawneeland! Owner upgrades in last 5 years include mini-split for heating/cooling, stainless appliances, double oven, dishwasher, new hot water heater, and gorgeous finished entry room! Vaulted ceiling, hardwood flooring, stone fireplace with gas log, and dual lofts for 3rd bedroom and storage. Rear deck and patio overlook fenced yard with raised garden beds. Aqua America water and separate well for outdoor water use. Secure storage shed with electric and ample parking in horseshoe driveway. Enjoy the private lake and all the Shawneeland amenities, just 15 minutes from downtown Winchester! Better hurry. .. .

8. 2016-08-18
   soldstatus $119,900
9. 2016-08-17
   soldstatus $119,900 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Superbly remodeled cottage with front entrance sunroom, wood floors thru out, two story field stone fireplace in open living room, dual lofts and one permanent staircase, remodeled kitchen with rear door, open dining area with patio door to deck, brick patio adjacent to deck, level lot, fenced rear yard, storage shed with covered firewood storage area, horseshoe driveway and parking area

10. 2016-08-17
    soldstatus $119,900 Sold

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Superbly remodeled cottage with front entrance sunroom, wood floors thru out, two story field stone fireplace in open living room, dual lofts and one permanent staircase, remodeled kitchen with rear door, open dining area with patio door to deck, brick patio adjacent to deck, level lot, fenced rear yard, storage shed with covered firewood storage area, horseshoe driveway and parking area

11. 2016-06-17
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
12. 2016-06-09
    listed $119,900 Active
13. 2008-08-03
    historical
14. 2007-04-27
    listed
15. 2006-02-24
    soldstatus $160,000
16. 2006-02-20
    soldstatus $160,000
17. 2006-01-20
    historical
18. 2006-01-11
    listed $169,000
19. 2005-10-01
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,061 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,194/yr (+$100/mo · 112.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,061
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,165
• After-tax cash flow: $1,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shawneeland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #14402

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shawneeland, VA
• County: Frederick County · 60,887 people
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 32,840
• Household income: $101,398
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 294.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.39%
• Current HPI: 209.8801
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.55%
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Coming Soon $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $223,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-15 Sold (MLS) $223,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-09-29 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-09-24 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2016-08-17 Sold (MLS) $119,900 MRIS
• 2016-08-17 Sold (MLS) $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-17 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-06-09 Listed $119,900 MRIS
• 2008-08-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-04-27 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-20 Sold (MLS) $160,000 MRIS
• 2006-01-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-01-11 Listed $169,000 MRIS
• 2005-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,061 · -30.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.