198 Abercorn St Lot 305B · Continental Courts, PA 16803

$40,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,697 sqft · Townhouse

Built 2026 $215/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

For Comp Purposes

Key facts

• $215 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $41k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $41k).
• Cap rate 41.2% vs local median 2.5% in Continental Courts — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bellefonte Area SD (town): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #140 of 539 in PA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 399 units permitted in Centre County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $284 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Centre County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.84%
• DSCR: 6.55
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $395,401
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
234 Acer Ave	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,752 (+3%)	4mo	$408,500	$233	81
334 Magnolia Ln Lot 69	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-1%)	1mo	$429,990	$257	74
184 Marshall Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-11%)	2mo	$303,000	$200	74
336 Magnolia Ln Lot 70	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,689 (-0%)	5mo	$431,990	$256	72
137 Broad Oak Ln Lot 72	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-1%)	3mo	$439,990	$263	71
326 Magnolia Ln Lot 66	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-1%)	6mo	$419,990	$251	70
210 Fultons Run Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$184	69
188 Acer Ave Lot 716B	0.43mi	3/3.5	1,760 (+4%)	7mo	$381,940	$217	64
124 Broad Oak Ln Lot 100	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,776 (+5%)	6mo	$449,990	$253	63
120 Broad Oak Ln Lot 98	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,863 (+10%)	7mo	$409,990	$220	54
123 Broad Oak Ln Lot 78	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,937 (+14%)	6mo	$424,990	$219	46
122 Broad Oak Ln Lot 99	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,947 (+15%)	7mo	$414,990	$213	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $65,378
• Equity at exit: $6,112

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.09×
• Total profit: $150,236
• Equity at exit: $3,544

Cash invested: $11,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16803

• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$215
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$215
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $1,128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $715

Max offer price $40,990

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,156	-5% $1,142	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,113	+10% $1,099
Rent	-10% $958	-5% $1,043	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,212	+10% $1,297
Rate	-1.0pp $1,148	-0.5pp $1,138	base $1,128	+0.5pp $1,117	+1.0pp $1,106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,248
• Closing costs: $1,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $215 · $2,580/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 17-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $40,990 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,296
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$1,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − HOA: −$2,580
• − Depreciation: −$1,192
• Taxable income: $13,907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,338
• After-tax cash flow: $10,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellefonte Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203240
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,460
• Composite: 45.25/100
• National rank: #2662
• State rank: #140 of 539 in PA

Livability — Continental Courts

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Centre County · 99,000 people
• Metro: State College, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,977
• Household income: $73,532
• Rent vs Own: 56.1% rent · 43.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1992.0

Population outlook (Centre County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 177,113 people
• By 2030: 185,138 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 196,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 205,070 · +15.8%
• By 2075: 217,575 · +22.8%
• By 2100: 230,649 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Asian 15% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Centre

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 48.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+4.8 2016: D+1.9 2012: R+0.0 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.11%
• Current HPI: 195.5782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: State College, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-11 Listed $40,990 BRIGHT MLS