821 Bunnell St · Forked River, NJ 08734

$799,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2001 0.31 ac lot $266/sqft · 13% below area Est $922k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the epitome of refined coastal living in this masterful 5-bedroom, 3.1-bath estate, where ''no expense spared'' This has resulted in unparalleled craftsmanship and sophisticated design. The interior is defined by a bright, open-concept floor plan bathed in natural light, showcasing custom oversized millwork and high-end finishes that flow seamlessly from room to room. At the heart of the home, an expansive eat-in gourmet kitchen offers the perfect stage for grand entertaining or intimate gatherings, while the thoughtful layout provides a harmonious balance of luxury and comfort. Perfectly situated just a short, scenic stroll from the tranquil waters of Barnegat Bay and the sands of Meadowlark Bay Beach,

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $800k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($120k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $800k).
• Recommended offer: $752k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lanoka Harbor Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #528 of 1,303 statewide, top 43%, 443 students, 27% FRL); Mill Pond Elementary School (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #332 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 680 students, 27% FRL); Lacey Township High School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #217 of 399 statewide, top 57%, 1,222 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($752k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 3900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $565k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $751,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.01%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $922,469
• List price: $799,999
• Delta: -13.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
821 Bunnell St	0.00mi	5/3.0	3,021 (+0%)	8mo	$561,900	$186	93
812 Clairmore Ave	0.09mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,879 (-4%)	10mo	$1,150,000	$399	73
834 Laurel Blvd	0.22mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,050 (+1%)	14mo	$1,150,000	$377	69
930 Pelican Dr	0.30mi	5/3.5	3,222 (+7%)	11mo	$935,000	$290	63
185 Harbor Inn Rd	0.58mi	5/2.5	2,876 (-4%)	7mo	$760,000	$264	58
818 Laurel Blvd	0.24mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,924 (-3%)	21mo	$1,505,000	$515	57
825 Oxgoose Dr	0.31mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,805 (-7%)	11mo	$849,900	$303	56
507 Laurel Blvd	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,812 (-7%)	13mo	$1,575,000	$560	52
148 Colleran Pl	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,816 (-6%)	14mo	$620,000	$220	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $509,577
• Equity at exit: $119,282

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $1,268,068
• Equity at exit: $69,169

Cash invested: $224,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax from tax record: −$816 /mo · $9,789/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $10,029

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,305

Max offer price $799,999

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,482	-5% $10,256	+0% $10,029	+5% $9,803	+10% $9,576
Rent	-10% $8,449	-5% $9,239	+0% $10,029	+5% $10,819	+10% $11,609
Rate	-1.0pp $10,432	-0.5pp $10,233	base $10,029	+0.5pp $9,822	+1.0pp $9,611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $200,000
• Closing costs: $24,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Bunnell St Lanoka Harbor, NJ	5.0	3.5	3012	$20,000	$6.64	16d	1	0.02mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $799,999 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $799,999 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,999 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,999 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $799,999 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,999 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,999 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $799,999 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $799,999 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,999 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,999 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    listed $20,000
13. 2026-05-04
    price $799,999 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Discover the epitome of refined coastal living in this masterful 5-bedroom, 3.1-bath estate, where ''no expense spared'' This has resulted in unparalleled craftsmanship and sophisticated design. The interior is defined by a bright, open-concept floor plan bathed in natural light, showcasing custom oversized millwork and high-end finishes that flow seamlessly from room to room. At the heart of the home, an expansive eat-in gourmet kitchen offers the perfect stage for grand entertaining or intimate gatherings, while the thoughtful layout provides a harmonious balance of luxury and comfort. Perfectly situated just a short, scenic stroll from the tranquil waters of Barnegat Bay and the sands of Meadowlark Bay Beach,

14. 2026-04-18
    listed $899,000 Active 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Discover the epitome of refined coastal living in this masterful 5-bedroom, 3.1-bath estate, where ''no expense spared'' This has resulted in unparalleled craftsmanship and sophisticated design. The interior is defined by a bright, open-concept floor plan bathed in natural light, showcasing custom oversized millwork and high-end finishes that flow seamlessly from room to room. At the heart of the home, an expansive eat-in gourmet kitchen offers the perfect stage for grand entertaining or intimate gatherings, while the thoughtful layout provides a harmonious balance of luxury and comfort. Perfectly situated just a short, scenic stroll from the tranquil waters of Barnegat Bay and the sands of Meadowlark Bay Beach,

15. 2026-03-24
    price $949,900
16. 2026-03-24
    price $949,900
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $999,900 Active
18. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus $564,900
19. 2025-11-06
    soldstatus $561,900 Closed
20. 2025-09-09
    status Pending
21. 2025-08-11
    listed $584,900 Active
22. 2025-07-18
    price $584,900
23. 2025-05-09
    status Active
24. 2025-05-08
    listed $599,900 Active
25. 2024-08-07
    price $624,999
26. 2024-07-19
    price $664,999
27. 2024-06-19
    listed $675,000 Active
28. 2024-06-12
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,789 · $816/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,854 · $1,238/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,066/yr (+$422/mo · 51.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 89% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,812
• − Property taxes: −$9,789
• − Insurance: −$9,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$23,273
• Taxable income: $114,608
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27,506
• After-tax cash flow: $92,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-97.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed for Rent $20,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $799,999 MOMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $899,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $949,900 CJMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $949,900 MOMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $999,900 MOMLS
• 2025-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $564,900 Public Records
• 2025-11-06 Sold (MLS) $561,900 MOMLS
• 2025-09-09 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $584,900 MOMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $584,900 MOMLS
• 2025-05-09 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $599,900 MOMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $624,999 MOMLS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $664,999 MOMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $675,000 MOMLS
• 2024-06-12 Coming Soon — MOMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,789 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.