109 State Highway 309 · Goodlow, TX 75144

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 217 Days on market

Built 2006 6,229 sqft lot $102/sqft · at area comps Est $129k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and make this completely renovated home your own! Located at 109 State Highway 309 in Goodlow, TX (Kerens, TX 75144), this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom 1222 square foot home features new waterproof laminate floors, fresh paint throughout, and new carpet in the bedrooms. The property has also an updated plumbing system. The home comes with a fridge, microwave, and stove. This single-family residence, built in 2006 on a 6,098 sq ft lot, is conveniently located near outdoor amenities. It is close to Richland Chambers Reservoir and Cedar Creek Lake, and just a short drive to either Corsicana or Athens.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New carpet
• Completely renovated

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW WATERPROOF LAMINATE FLOORS
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• UPDATED PLUMBING SYSTEM
• CLOSE TO OUTDOOR AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($577/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,208 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kerens ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #495 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 10317% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,584
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -2.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $36,283
• Equity at exit: $75,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $105,174
• Equity at exit: $134,372

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75144

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,732/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $83	+0% $48	+5% $13	+10% $-23
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $3	+0% $48	+5% $93	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $80	base $48	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   remarks 668-char remark
5. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $125,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 197 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 196 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 195 DOM
19. 2026-05-09
    listed $1,200
20. 2026-01-21
    price $125,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Come and make this completely renovated home your own! Located at 109 State Highway 309 in Goodlow, TX (Kerens, TX 75144), this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom 1222 square foot home features new waterproof laminate floors, fresh paint throughout, and new carpet in the bedrooms. The property has also an updated plumbing system. The home comes with a fridge, microwave, and stove. This single-family residence, built in 2006 on a 6,098 sq ft lot, is conveniently located near outdoor amenities. It is close to Richland Chambers Reservoir and Cedar Creek Lake, and just a short drive to either Corsicana or Athens.

21. 2025-11-17
    listed $134,999 Active 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Come and make this completely renovated home your own! Located at 109 State Highway 309 in Goodlow, TX (Kerens, TX 75144), this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom 1222 square foot home features new waterproof laminate floors, fresh paint throughout, and new carpet in the bedrooms. The property has also an updated plumbing system. The home comes with a fridge, microwave, and stove. This single-family residence, built in 2006 on a 6,098 sq ft lot, is conveniently located near outdoor amenities. It is close to Richland Chambers Reservoir and Cedar Creek Lake, and just a short drive to either Corsicana or Athens.

22. 2025-04-01
    historical
23. 2024-08-21
    price $139,900
24. 2024-07-17
    price $146,900
25. 2024-05-15
    price $149,900
26. 2024-04-17
    listed $150,000 Active
27. 2023-12-26
    soldstatus
28. 2023-12-22
    status Pending
29. 2023-12-22
    soldstatus Closed
30. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus
31. 2023-11-16
    listed $67,500 Active
32. 2006-06-06
    soldstatus
33. 1996-11-14
    soldstatus
34. 1979-05-04
    soldstatus
35. 1968-06-12
    soldstatus
36. 1944-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,732 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$555/yr (+$46/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,732
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$363
• After-tax cash flow: $940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825530
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,364
• Composite: 30.81/100
• National rank: #6142
• State rank: #495 of 826 in TX

Livability — Goodlow

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1208
• US rank: #21056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodlow, TX
• City population: 3,798
• Population (ZIP): 3,798

Population outlook (Navarro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,397 people
• By 2030: 48,096 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 47,394 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 46,541 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 44,940 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 42,288 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Navarro

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.7% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+42.4 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2915
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,200 NTREIS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $134,999 NTREIS
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $146,900 NTREIS
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2024-04-17 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-22 Pending — CBMLS
• 2023-12-22 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-16 Listed $67,500 CBMLS
• 2006-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1979-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1968-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1944-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,732 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.