12938 S Coast Dr · Houston, TX 77047

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1970 5,562 sqft lot Est $143k · 22% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 12938 S Coast Drive! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is nestled in a quiet, friendly neighborhood. Recently upgraded, the residence boasts a spacious living room and a combined family and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to a large backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. With easy access to Pearland, the Medical Center, and Downtown, convenience is at your doorstep. Don't miss this opportunity—schedule a showing today! NOTE: The seller is a licensed realtor.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Large backyard
• New appliances

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• LARGE BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO PEARLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owner is listing agent
• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1970; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Ceiling fan(s); 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12930 Segrest Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,219 (+3%)	6mo	$122,000	$100	88
12922 Claygate Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,184 (0%)	11mo	$124,900	$105	88
12822 Southbridge Rd	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,215 (+3%)	24mo	$180,000	$148	66
12506 S Coast Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,026 (-13%)	3mo	$120,000	$117	54
12702 Claygate Dr	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,360 (+15%)	1mo	$98,000	$72	54
12511 Claygate Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,298 (+10%)	10mo	$95,000	$73	53
3630 Almeda Genoa Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,063 (-10%)	21mo	$128,900	$121	48
12543 Claygate Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,305 (+10%)	24mo	$175,000	$134	45
3411 Grand Legacy Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+9%)	18mo	$264,990	$206	43
12611 S Coast Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,335 (+13%)	20mo	$130,000	$97	41
12518 Donegal Way	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,346 (+14%)	19mo	$180,000	$134	39
12711 Mill Valley Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+13%)	14mo	$165,000	$123	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,384
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,326
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,169/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,588

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	0.40mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	2d	26	0.51mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.77mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	0.78mi
13561 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	44d	1	0.82mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	44d	35	0.84mi
3110 Kainer Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,900	$1.29	8d	1	0.95mi
4071 Schurmier Rd Unit SLC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,575	$1.59	3d	1	1.05mi
2620 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$1,650	$2.09	3d	13	1.19mi
13351 Cityscape Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,820	$1.87	1d	26	1.20mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Unit 13534 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,712	$1.48	3d	1	1.27mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,720	$1.49	5d	1	1.27mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	961	$1,710	$1.78	13d	26	1.29mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	44d	1	1.34mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	19d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-05-19
    price $175,000
13. 2026-05-17
    listed $165,000 Active
14. 2025-12-25
    historical $1,650
15. 2025-11-26
    listed $1,650
16. 2025-08-31
    historical
17. 2025-07-01
    price $179,000
18. 2025-07-01
    listed $182,000 Active
19. 2025-06-05
    historical $1,792
20. 2025-05-02
    price $1,792
21. 2025-04-18
    listed $1,850
22. 2025-04-03
    soldstatus Sold 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Welcome to 12938 S Coast Drive! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is nestled in a quiet, friendly neighborhood. Recently upgraded, the residence boasts a spacious living room and a combined family and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to a large backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. With easy access to Pearland, the Medical Center, and Downtown, convenience is at your doorstep. Don't miss this opportunity—schedule a showing today! NOTE: The seller is a licensed realtor.

23. 2025-02-28
    status Pending 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Welcome to 12938 S Coast Drive! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is nestled in a quiet, friendly neighborhood. Recently upgraded, the residence boasts a spacious living room and a combined family and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to a large backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. With easy access to Pearland, the Medical Center, and Downtown, convenience is at your doorstep. Don't miss this opportunity—schedule a showing today! NOTE: The seller is a licensed realtor.

24. 2025-01-27
    price $169,900 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Welcome to 12938 S Coast Drive! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is nestled in a quiet, friendly neighborhood. Recently upgraded, the residence boasts a spacious living room and a combined family and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to a large backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. With easy access to Pearland, the Medical Center, and Downtown, convenience is at your doorstep. Don't miss this opportunity—schedule a showing today! NOTE: The seller is a licensed realtor.

25. 2025-01-02
    price $179,900 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Welcome to 12938 S Coast Drive! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is nestled in a quiet, friendly neighborhood. Recently upgraded, the residence boasts a spacious living room and a combined family and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to a large backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. With easy access to Pearland, the Medical Center, and Downtown, convenience is at your doorstep. Don't miss this opportunity—schedule a showing today! NOTE: The seller is a licensed realtor.

26. 2024-12-16
    listed $189,900 Active 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Welcome to 12938 S Coast Drive! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is nestled in a quiet, friendly neighborhood. Recently upgraded, the residence boasts a spacious living room and a combined family and dining area—ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to a large backyard, offering endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment. With easy access to Pearland, the Medical Center, and Downtown, convenience is at your doorstep. Don't miss this opportunity—schedule a showing today! NOTE: The seller is a licensed realtor.

27. 2024-07-25
    soldstatus
28. 1989-04-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,169 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$34/yr (+$3/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,169
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$41
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10
• After-tax cash flow: $2,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-25 Rental Removed $1,650 RENTSPREE
• 2025-11-26 Listed for Rent $1,650 RENTSPREE
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $182,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Rental Removed $1,792 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $1,792 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-16 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,169 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.