1185 NE Francis St · Rockaway Beach, OR 97136

$499,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2020 6,969 sqft lot $395/sqft · at area comps Est $504k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful newer home tucked behind Lake Lytle on the desirable north end of Rockaway Beach! Built in 2020, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open-concept layout with tall vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a farmhouse sink, and a breakfast bar perfect for gathering! Step outside to the large open deck overlooking a peaceful creek that runs through the property, creating a private and relaxing backyard setting. The fully fenced yard offers space for pets, gardening, or entertaining, while the attached garage adds convenience and storage. Just minutes from Rockaway Beach's 7 miles of sandy shoreline, enjoy beachcombing, kite flying, bonfires, whale watching, and sunset walks! A short walk to Lake Lytle offers year-round recreation with fishing, kayaking, paddleboarding, boating, bird watching, and peaceful lakeside strolls. This home offers the perfect blend of coastal living, outdoor adventure, and everyday comfort!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.16 acre (7,000–9,999 sq ft range); Zoned RK-R3; Not in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway and on-street parking; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Resale home; One story; Main level living; Home faces view of creek and mountains
• Construction: Built in 2020; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Yard; Cement siding; Corner lot; Level lot; On-site stream/creek; Creek frontage; Mountain views; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Dishwasher; Free‑standing range; Free‑standing refrigerator; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vinyl flooring; Electric fireplace; Vinyl window frames; Accessible entrance; Garage on main level; Main floor bedroom with bath; One-level living; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $499k).
• Recommended offer: $484k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.7% in Rockaway Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#94 in OR, #4,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garibaldi Elementary School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #288 of 412 statewide, top 73%, 120 students, 52% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie Middle School (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #41 of 128 statewide, top 32%, 177 students, 44% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 280 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $484,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $503,586
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -0.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1064 Necarney St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,263 (0%)	4mo	$475,000	$376	93
1068 Necarney St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,263 (0%)	8mo	$490,000	$388	90
1176 Necarney St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,263 (0%)	15mo	$490,000	$388	84
1026 NE 13th Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,109 (-12%)	2mo	$410,000	$370	66
151 NE 19th Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-6%)	10mo	$430,000	$361	59
9460 NE 18th Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (-8%)	6mo	$362,500	$313	58
1321 N Pacific Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	6mo	$815,000	$707	57
711 N 6th St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (-11%)	3mo	$700,000	$621	47
1702 N Highway 101	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+9%)	20mo	$499,900	$362	46
1430 N Cedar Creek Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+12%)	10mo	$508,000	$361	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $25,499
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $158,760
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97136

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,917/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $1,672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,883

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,955	-5% $1,813	+0% $1,672	+5% $1,531	+10% $1,390
Rent	-10% $1,198	-5% $1,435	+0% $1,672	+5% $1,909	+10% $2,146
Rate	-1.0pp $1,923	-0.5pp $1,799	base $1,672	+0.5pp $1,543	+1.0pp $1,411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 N Dolphin St Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	2.0	1020	$6,000	$5.88	44d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $499,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $499,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $499,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $525,000 Active 1020-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1020 chars)

    Beautiful newer home tucked behind Lake Lytle on the desirable north end of Rockaway Beach! Built in 2020, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open-concept layout with tall vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a farmhouse sink, and a breakfast bar perfect for gathering! Step outside to the large open deck overlooking a peaceful creek that runs through the property, creating a private and relaxing backyard setting. The fully fenced yard offers space for pets, gardening, or entertaining, while the attached garage adds convenience and storage. Just minutes from Rockaway Beach's 7 miles of sandy shoreline, enjoy beachcombing, kite flying, bonfires, whale watching, and sunset walks! A short walk to Lake Lytle offers year-round recreation with fishing, kayaking, paddleboarding, boating, bird watching, and peaceful lakeside strolls. This home offers the perfect blend of coastal living, outdoor adventure, and everyday comfort!

17. 2026-04-30
    listed $525,000 Active 1020-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1020 chars)

    Beautiful newer home tucked behind Lake Lytle on the desirable north end of Rockaway Beach! Built in 2020, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open-concept layout with tall vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a farmhouse sink, and a breakfast bar perfect for gathering! Step outside to the large open deck overlooking a peaceful creek that runs through the property, creating a private and relaxing backyard setting. The fully fenced yard offers space for pets, gardening, or entertaining, while the attached garage adds convenience and storage. Just minutes from Rockaway Beach's 7 miles of sandy shoreline, enjoy beachcombing, kite flying, bonfires, whale watching, and sunset walks! A short walk to Lake Lytle offers year-round recreation with fishing, kayaking, paddleboarding, boating, bird watching, and peaceful lakeside strolls. This home offers the perfect blend of coastal living, outdoor adventure, and everyday comfort!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,917 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,840 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,923/yr (+$160/mo · 65.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥77°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$2,917
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable income: $12,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,024
• After-tax cash flow: $17,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56
• NCES district ID: 4108650
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,437
• Composite: 41.68/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #62 of 183 in OR

Livability — Rockaway Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #4777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockaway Beach, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,422

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $499,000 RMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $499,000 OCMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $525,000 OCMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $525,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,917 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.