402 E Ward St · Urbana, OH 43078

$171,630

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,915 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1890 6,098 sqft lot Est $264k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Price listed is auditor value. This property sells via online auction on April 22. Spacious 2-Story home with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2-car detached garage.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.3% in Urbana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Urbana City (town): math 43% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #509 of 656 in OH (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Champaign County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $151,311 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.47%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,270
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
429 E Court St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,973 (+3%)	4mo	$220,436	$112	74
346 Lafayette Ave	0.17mi	4/1.5	2,028 (+6%)	10mo	$240,000	$118	72
403 E Ward St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,684 (-12%)	2mo	$172,328	$102	68
528 E Church St	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,813 (-5%)	11mo	$257,000	$142	66
826 N Main St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,953 (+2%)	4mo	$165,000	$84	59
340 E Court St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-12%)	12mo	$277,000	$164	58
410 S Main St	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,093 (+9%)	4mo	$175,000	$84	48
510 Boyce St	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,186 (+14%)	13mo	$233,000	$107	48
119 College St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,652 (-14%)	0mo	$238,000	$144	46
352 Henry St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,807 (-6%)	8mo	$264,000	$146	45
653 E Ward St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,696 (-11%)	9mo	$233,500	$138	44
227 Hill St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-10%)	10mo	$245,000	$142	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $99,754
• Equity at exit: $154,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.01×
• Total profit: $288,731
• Equity at exit: $333,439

Cash invested: $48,056 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43078

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$900
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,496/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $171,630

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $148	+0% $99	+5% $51	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $39	+0% $99	+5% $159	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $143	base $99	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,908
• Closing costs: $5,149
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $171,630
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $60,070 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,496 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,087 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$591/yr (+$49/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,614
• − Property taxes: −$1,496
• − Insurance: −$858
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − Depreciation: −$4,993
• Taxable loss: −$1,709
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$410
• After-tax cash flow: $1,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Urbana City
• NCES district ID: 3904494
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,461
• Composite: 36.9/100
• National rank: #4545
• State rank: #509 of 656 in OH

Livability — Urbana

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #6676

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbana, OH
• County: Champaign · 37,359 people
• Population (ZIP): 19,985
• Household income: $72,500
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.2

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,480 people
• By 2030: 34,790 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 31,082 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 27,217 · -25.4%
• By 2075: 19,156 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 12,690 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.1% · R 74.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.9pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.22%
• Current HPI: 415.85
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — WRIST
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $171,630 WRIST
• 2026-04-15 Listed $60,070 WRIST

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,496 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.