2613 W Walnut St · Springfield, MO 65806

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1938 0.30 ac lot Est $137k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! Demo has begun (kitchen and bathroom) with tons of potential, so bring your vision and transform it in to whatever you'd like it to be. Currently 2/1 with a bonus room upstairs and a large dry basement. Newer Lennox furnace in basement as well as a gas water heater. Nice large lot too, and the carport has an enclosed storage area in the front. Priced to sell as-is, so come take a look.

Key facts

• Large dry basement
• Gas water heater
• Newer lennox furnace

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE DRY BASEMENT
• NEWER LENNOX FURNACE
• GAS WATER HEATER
• ENCLOSED STORAGE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westport Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 88% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 46% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($28k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.28%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2223 W Elm St	0.37mi	2/1.0	993 (-6%)	1mo	$115,000	$116	73
2041 W Elm St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,028 (-2%)	2mo	$125,000	$122	70
2916 W Chestnut St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,040 (-1%)	3mo	$139,000	$134	66
3036 W Water St	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (-1%)	1mo	$135,000	$130	64
2914 W Chestnut St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-1%)	3mo	$129,000	$124	61
2928 W Chestnut St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-1%)	3mo	$119,000	$114	61
3121 W Harrison St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,052 (0%)	1mo	$187,500	$178	56
2200 W Phelps St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-11%)	0mo	$135,900	$145	52
2919 W Page St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,096 (+4%)	2mo	$176,500	$161	51
717 N West Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0	909 (-14%)	0mo	$125,000	$138	50
521 N Park Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	910 (-14%)	1mo	$85,000	$93	45
735 N Brown Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (+15%)	1mo	$115,000	$95	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $6,753
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $35,875
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65806

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,046 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $662

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $327	+0% $303	+5% $279	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $262	+0% $303	+5% $344	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $325	base $303	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2602 W College St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1350	$995	$0.74	14d	1	0.06mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	44d	1	0.16mi
2412 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,295	$1.03	24d	1	0.26mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	22d	1	0.33mi
3002 W Elm St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,295	$1.15	22d	1	0.48mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$850	$0.87	22d	1	0.53mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	44d	1	0.63mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	14d	1	0.64mi
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	0.64mi
250 N Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1153	$628	$0.54	14d	1	0.73mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	14d	1	0.76mi
1020 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$950	$0.94	24d	1	0.76mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,175	$1.17	44d	1	0.80mi
922 N Glenn Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	44d	1	0.80mi
1040 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$945	$0.94	14d	1	0.82mi
1152 S Hillcrest Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,300	$1.05	44d	1	1.07mi
539 S Fort Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,025	$0.68	14d	1	1.17mi
1365 S Scenic Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,550	$1.17	14d	1	1.19mi
627 S Fort Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$895	$1.02	24d	1	1.19mi
1200 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$995	$0.99	14d	3	1.23mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,350	$1.27	44d	1	1.24mi
1500 W Grand St Springfield, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1365	$1,245	$0.91	14d	3	1.27mi
1735 W Bennett St Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$1,124	$1.41	14d	2	1.39mi
513 S Broadway Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$855	$1.07	44d	1	1.41mi
1036 W Monroe Ter Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	812	$795	$0.98	24d	1	1.41mi
412 S Duke Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,585	$1.13	14d	1	1.43mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	24d	1	1.46mi
930 W Harrison St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1046	$1,150	$1.10	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $85,000 Active
3. 2026-03-23
   soldstatus
4. 2026-03-23
   soldstatus
5. 2020-11-17
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 64.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,004
• − Management: −$1,004
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$571
• After-tax cash flow: $3,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 13,692
• Household income: $28,165
• Rent vs Own: 87.3% rent · 12.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1966.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.72%
• Current HPI: 208.8156
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-30 Listed $85,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $501 · +25.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.