5707 45th St E #281 · Samoset, FL 34203

$177,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1997 5,445 sqft lot Est $145k · 23% over $292/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Light and Bright 2/Bed, 2 Bath home in the beautiful Gold Tree community. Living Room, Kitchen and Dinette are an open floor plan. This home offers inside washer & dryer, master bedroom with ensuite bathroom, (both bathrooms have walk-in showers). Relax in the lanai or the very large, screened area at the front of the home. Gold Tree is a gated community (gates closed from 6pm to 6am) and it provides a locked storage yard for your RV's, boats & trailers. The community is very well run with an office on site. Your $292 monthly fee covers Cable, internet, water and weekly lawn service. There are lots of activities which are published in the monthly Newsletter Calendar or the board

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open floor plan
• Near shoppes

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LANAI
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• LOCKED STORAGE YARD
• NEAR SHOPPES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: East on 57th St between Lockwood Ridge and 53rd Ave E; through entrance. Address on GPS will be 281 Imperial Place.
• Financial info: Total annual association fees approximately $3,504; Lease restrictions apply; Property is part of a senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Partially furnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Rene Crewell) — monthly fee $292; Association amenities: pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, clubhouse, owned recreational facilities; Association fee includes: cable TV, internet, pool, sewer, water, trash, management, maintenance of grounds, common area taxes, escrow reserves

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; BB/HS internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces south; Open crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Built as a manufactured double wide
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Window treatments; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Samoset — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#645 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $178k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5707 45th St E #35	0.00mi	2/2.0	912 (-5%)	4mo	$160,000	$175	89
5707 45th St E #158	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,042 (+8%)	3mo	$170,000	$163	84
5316 53rd Ave E Unit Q5	0.50mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$105,000	$109	73
5707 45th St E #136	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	6mo	$150,000	$136	71
5316 53rd Ave E Unit N9	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	3mo	$160,000	$152	61
5316 53rd Ave E Unit L1	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	5mo	$175,000	$166	57
5316 53rd Ave E Unit Q18	0.50mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	5mo	$139,900	$162	56
5316 53rd Ave E Unit K14	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	6mo	$140,000	$133	54
5316 53rd Ave E Unit F38	0.66mi	2/1.5	896 (-7%)	2mo	$100,500	$112	54
5316 53rd Ave E Unit F17	0.70mi	2/2.0	896 (-7%)	10mo	$135,000	$151	48
5316 53rd Ave E Unit F24	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	9mo	$60,000	$57	43
5316 53rd Ave E Unit F41	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	10mo	$120,000	$109	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-21,106
• Equity at exit: $26,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-23,775
• Equity at exit: $15,382

Cash invested: $49,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,638/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$292
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $177,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,475
• Closing costs: $5,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5707 45th St E #19 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$1,700	$1.75	23d	1	0.03mi
5616 Gentle Breeze St Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	23d	1	0.38mi
5316 53rd Ave E Unit Q111 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,495	$1.42	10d	1	0.53mi
4815 Woodbrook Dr Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,290	$2.12	3d	1	0.75mi
5016 Misty Canal Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1080	$1,950	$1.81	23d	1	1.12mi
5515 Fair Oaks St Unit 5515 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,000	$1.99	23d	1	1.16mi
4540 Runabout Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1080	$2,300	$2.13	23d	1	1.16mi
4665 Whitfield Ave Sarasota, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,372	$2.32	2d	59	1.21mi
6896 W Country Club Ln #148 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,700	$1.52	11d	1	1.23mi
7008 W Country Club Dr N Unit 136 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,875	$1.68	23d	1	1.23mi
3645 Ali ala LOOP Braden River, FL	1.0	1.0	950	$1,400	$1.47	23d	1	1.25mi
5414 Fair Oaks St Unit 10-D Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,995	$1.99	3d	1	1.26mi
6501 Stone River Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,820	$2.61	16d	2	1.29mi
6501 Stone River Rd Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	23d	1	1.29mi
3880 Palm Isle Pl Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$2,499	$2.40	1d	13	1.30mi
7050 W Country Club Dr N Unit 10-A Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$4,300	$3.85	23d	1	1.30mi
7062 W Country Club Dr N #7062 Sarasota, FL	1.0	1.5	954	$3,000	$3.14	23d	1	1.33mi
7461 W Country Club Dr N Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1153	$2,275	$1.97	3d	4	1.34mi
6505 Stone River Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,825	$2.62	16d	3	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $292 · $3,504/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetcablesecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,900 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,900 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,900 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,900 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,900 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $177,900 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,900 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,900 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $177,900 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,900 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,900 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,900 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,900 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-01-25
    listed $177,900 Active
16. 2007-12-15
    soldstatus $90,000
17. 2003-05-09
    soldstatus $67,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,638 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,638 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,965
• − Property taxes: −$1,638
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − HOA: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$5,175
• Taxable loss: −$113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Samoset

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #12763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+162.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-25 Listed $177,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $67,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,638 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.