94 Warpas Rd · Madison, CT 06443

$639,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,137 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1958 1.01 ac lot Est $622k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 94 Warpas Road, a carefully maintained Cape-style home on a picturesque 1-acre lot in one of Madison's most desirable locations. This 4-bedroom home blends classic New England charm with modern updates. Situated directly across from protected land trust property with hiking trails, you'll enjoy peaceful views and the assurance that no homes will ever be built across the street. The flexible floor plan features a sought-after first-floor primary bedroom, while the second floor offers an additional primary suite option with a spacious walk-in closet. The partially finished lower level includes a custom-built bar and dedicated exercise room (not pictured). Step outside to your priva

Key facts

• Cape-style home
• Custom-built bar
• 1-acre lot

Tags

• CAPE-STYLE HOME
• 1-ACRE LOT
• PROTECTED LAND TRUST PROPERTY
• HIKING TRAILS
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• CUSTOM-BUILT BAR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewage
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Concrete foundation; Concrete construction
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; Shake siding; Covered deck and deck; Garden area; Shed; Above-ground swimming pool with safety fence; Professionally landscaped, open lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Split system cooling; Hot air heating; Electric and solar heating fuel; Active solar energy system
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; One fireplace; Full, partially finished basement with interior access
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $639k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($54k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $639k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 153 in CT (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Daniel Hand High School (math 69% / reading 86%, grade A-, #8 of 194 statewide, top 4%, 828 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $179k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $639k implies a 285% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $639,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.19%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $621,867
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Mungertown Rd	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,224 (+4%)	4mo	$630,000	$283	62
259 Mungertown Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (-3%)	8mo	$729,000	$353	61
37 Riverside Ter	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,955 (-8%)	9mo	$580,000	$297	56
409 Green Hill Rd	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,047 (-4%)	22mo	$710,000	$347	52
181 Ridge Rd	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,921 (-10%)	9mo	$625,000	$325	47
102 Ridge Rd	0.61mi	4/1.5	1,960 (-8%)	14mo	$530,000	$270	44
178 Mungertown Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-11%)	2mo	$515,000	$272	43
278 Mungertown Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,334 (+9%)	22mo	$575,000	$246	40
184 Warpas Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,447 (+14%)	19mo	$712,500	$291	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $183,209
• Equity at exit: $95,277

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $528,822
• Equity at exit: $55,249

Cash invested: $178,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06443

• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,668/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,306
• Net cashflow: $4,502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,282

Max offer price $639,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,750
• Closing costs: $19,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
323 Green Hill Rd Madison, CT	3.0	2.5	2112	$12,000	$5.68	2d	1	0.21mi
141 Flintlock Rd Madison, CT	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,485	$1.74	16d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $639,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $639,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,668 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,171 · $848/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,503/yr (+$292/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $131,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,794
• − Property taxes: −$6,668
• − Insurance: −$3,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,542
• − Management: −$10,542
• − Depreciation: −$18,589
• Taxable income: $46,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,146
• After-tax cash flow: $42,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison School District
• NCES district ID: 0902280
• Math proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $103,788
• Composite: 66.15/100
• National rank: #435
• State rank: #10 of 153 in CT

Livability — Madison

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,577

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.58%
• Current HPI: 242.8467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+285.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Coming Soon $639,000 Smart MLS
• 1997-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $165,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,668 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.