216 Bluebonnet · Marlin, TX 76661

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1950 0.45 ac lot $54/sqft · 16% below area Est $119k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with a one-car garage sitting on a large lot in Marlin! With its welcoming curb appeal, mature trees, and inviting front entry, this home is full of character and potential. Step inside to find beautiful hardwood floors that add warmth and timeless charm throughout. The spacious layout offers plenty of room to make it your own—perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for an affordable place to call home. Outside, the oversized lot provides endless possibilities—whether you want to garden, entertain, or simply enjoy the extra space and privacy. And if that's not enough, go look at that price again!

Key facts

• Large lot
• Inviting front entry
• Oversized lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• INVITING FRONT ENTRY
• OVERSIZED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Marlin Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 201 students, 100% FRL); Marlin High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,612 of 1,632 statewide, top 99%, 243 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.94%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,468
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -16.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
216 Bluebonnet	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,860 (0%)	0mo	$99,900	$54	100
237 Palm	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,855 (-0%)	1mo	$43,160	$23	87
1213 Norbert St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+2%)	9mo	$109,500	$58	76
1405 Northridge St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-12%)	2mo	$189,000	$116	74
100 Fm 2117	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,933 (+4%)	1mo	$215,000	$111	70
818 Rock Dam Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,838 (-1%)	7mo	$55,000	$30	67
125 Royal Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-9%)	14mo	$115,000	$68	66
209 Country Club Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (-7%)	16mo	$329,850	$191	57
919 Ward St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,766 (-5%)	24mo	$175,000	$99	51
413 Houghton Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-14%)	4mo	$115,000	$72	39
420 Sunset Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-11%)	23mo	$227,000	$137	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $31,769
• Equity at exit: $51,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $87,281
• Equity at exit: $85,283

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,824/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $237	+0% $208	+5% $180	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $154	+0% $208	+5% $263	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $234	base $208	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with a one-car garage sitting on a large lot in Marlin! With its welcoming curb appeal, mature trees, and inviting front entry, this home is full of character and potential. Step inside to find beautiful hardwood floors that add warmth and timeless charm throughout. The spacious layout offers plenty of room to make it your own—perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for an affordable place to call home. Outside, the oversized lot provides endless possibilities—whether you want to garden, entertain, or simply enjoy the extra space and privacy. And if that's not enough, go look at that price again!

2. 2026-03-25
   listed $99,900 Active 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with a one-car garage sitting on a large lot in Marlin! With its welcoming curb appeal, mature trees, and inviting front entry, this home is full of character and potential. Step inside to find beautiful hardwood floors that add warmth and timeless charm throughout. The spacious layout offers plenty of room to make it your own—perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for an affordable place to call home. Outside, the oversized lot provides endless possibilities—whether you want to garden, entertain, or simply enjoy the extra space and privacy. And if that's not enough, go look at that price again!

3. 2025-10-21
   price $135,000
4. 2025-09-27
   price $145,000
5. 2025-08-18
   listed $165,000 Active
6. 2025-03-11
   historical
7. 2025-01-10
   historical
8. 2025-01-09
   listed $185,000 Active
9. 2025-01-09
   listed $185,000
10. 2024-12-03
    price $165,000
11. 2024-11-12
    listed $170,000 Active
12. 2024-09-26
    historical
13. 2024-07-31
    price $179,900
14. 2024-07-01
    listed $185,000 Active
15. 2012-09-13
    listed $27,884
16. 2007-09-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,824 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,824 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$3,824
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$267
• After-tax cash flow: $2,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+258.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-01-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $185,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2024-07-01 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2012-09-13 Listed $27,884 CTXMLS
• 2007-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,824 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.