309 Stacy St · Burlington, NJ 08016

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,190 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1800 2,797 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the center of the town of Burlington and two blocks from the River is this historic home, built in the 1800's and ready to be restored. Initially the home had four bedrooms, two fireplaces and a walk up attic, which could be designed as an office, playroom, or additional bedrooms. This home is located in the "designated opportunity zone' by the Township. The Township has spent close to $10,000 to preserve the property. The opportunity is here for an investor under a partnership program with National Park Service and the IRS in conjunction with the State Historic Preservation Office with each having specific roles. All documents are included with this listing. Additional lot is included with the property. This could be an opportunity for an investor or private individual looking to restore the home to its original beauty and be a part of the redevelopment of Burlington,

Key facts

• Center of the town
• Additional lot
• Historic home

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• ADDITIONAL LOT
• CENTER OF THE TOWN
• TWO BLOCKS FROM THE RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $800 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.9% vs local median 4.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Burlington City Public School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #439 of 472 in NJ (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $75k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.09%
• DSCR: 4.12
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,270
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 W Union St	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,232 (+2%)	7mo	$299,900	$134	68
333 E Union St	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,046 (-7%)	10mo	$300,000	$147	63
367 Barclay St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,960 (-10%)	6mo	$260,000	$133	62
217 Penn St	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,397 (+10%)	14mo	$250,000	$104	59
407 Lawrence St	0.15mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,971 (-10%)	16mo	$189,900	$96	56
326 York St	0.08mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,908 (-13%)	17mo	$139,000	$73	53
438 W Broad St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (-4%)	9mo	$319,900	$152	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $39,171
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $101,213
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08016

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,460/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $800

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Lawrence St Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1859	$2,000	$1.08	5d	1	0.13mi
336 Barclay St Unit B Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1944	$1,800	$0.93	24d	1	0.25mi
105 W Union St Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.5	1645	$2,000	$1.22	2d	1	0.25mi
516 Columbus Rd Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1404	$2,400	$1.71	1d	1	0.47mi
516 Columbus Rd Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,750	$1.72	15d	1	0.47mi
115 Cedar St Unit 2 Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,600	$1.53	1d	1	1.14mi
256 Radcliffe St Bristol, PA	4.0	2.0	1900	$3,250	$1.71	1d	1	1.15mi
327 Wood St Bristol, PA	4.0	3.5	2453	$3,995	$1.63	1d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $75,000 Active
3. 2021-06-07
   soldstatus $25,000
4. 2019-06-14
   soldstatus $35,500
5. 2019-03-29
   soldstatus $35,500 Closed 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   Located in the center of the town of Burlington and two blocks from the River is this historic home, built in the 1800's and ready to be restored. Initially the home had four bedrooms, two fireplaces and a walk up attic, which could be designed as an office, playroom, or additional bedrooms. This home is located in the "designated opportunity zone' by the Township. The Township has spent close to $10,000 to preserve the property. The opportunity is here for an investor under a partnership program with National Park Service and the IRS in conjunction with the State Historic Preservation Office with each having specific roles. All documents are included with this listing. Additional lot is included with the property. This could be an opportunity for an investor or private individual looking to restore the home to its original beauty and be a part of the redevelopment of Burlington,

6. 2019-01-24
   listed $44,900 Active 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   Located in the center of the town of Burlington and two blocks from the River is this historic home, built in the 1800's and ready to be restored. Initially the home had four bedrooms, two fireplaces and a walk up attic, which could be designed as an office, playroom, or additional bedrooms. This home is located in the "designated opportunity zone' by the Township. The Township has spent close to $10,000 to preserve the property. The opportunity is here for an investor under a partnership program with National Park Service and the IRS in conjunction with the State Historic Preservation Office with each having specific roles. All documents are included with this listing. Additional lot is included with the property. This could be an opportunity for an investor or private individual looking to restore the home to its original beauty and be a part of the redevelopment of Burlington,

7. 2018-10-20
   status Pending
8. 2018-09-05
   status Pending
9. 2018-08-01
   listed $55,900 Active
10. 2014-02-06
    historical
11. 2013-08-06
    listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,460
• − Insurance: −$5,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,243
• After-tax cash flow: $7,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3402430
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,122
• Composite: 16.27/100
• National rank: #9218
• State rank: #439 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NJ
• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 34,920
• Household income: $98,463
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.42%
• Current HPI: 298.7935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records
• 2019-03-29 Sold (MLS) $35,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-24 Listed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-01 Listed $55,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-08-06 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,460 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.