3813 Vine Trl · Ellenton, FL 34222

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2026 Good condition $90/sqft · 20% below area Est $187k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.7

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. This stunning, brand-new Skyline Home features the highly coveted Bayshore with Full Rear Porch floor plan, spanning 1,664 sq. ft. of masterfully designed living space. This 2 bedroom , 2 bath home creates an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings to create a bright, sophisticated atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired island kitchen, offering an expansive workspace and premium storage that makes both daily living and entertaining an absolute breeze.

Key facts

• Guest room
• Dual vanities
• Walk in shower

Tags

• BAYSHORE WITH FULL REAR PORCH
• CHEF INSPIRED ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK IN SHOWER
• GUEST ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.9% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,294 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,000
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -20.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Whipporwill Ct	1.05mi	2/2.0	1,606 (-4%)	5mo	$150,000	$93	55
3449 71st Ave E	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-16%)	4mo	$268,000	$191	50
3607 70th Ave E	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,434 (-14%)	6mo	$275,000	$192	48
180 Nightingale Cir	1.08mi	2/2.0	1,504 (-10%)	2mo	$214,900	$143	47
83 Eagle Cir	1.12mi	2/2.0	1,876 (+13%)	2mo	$207,000	$110	42
73 Whipporwill Ct	1.03mi	2/2.0	1,350 (-19%)	0mo	$205,000	$152	40
1 Meadow Cir	1.05mi	2/2.0	1,375 (-17%)	2mo	$219,900	$160	38
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.92mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-19%)	6mo	$140,000	$104	35
137 Osprey Cir	0.77mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-19%)	6mo	$190,000	$141	35
119 Mockingbird Ln	0.98mi	2/2.0	1,930 (+16%)	6mo	$190,000	$98	35
94 Meadow Cir	0.81mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,930 (+16%)	2mo	$217,000	$112	34
146 Nightingale Cir	0.95mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-16%)	6mo	$265,000	$189	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,103
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,765
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 39.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $129,900 ($82/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +36.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $162	+0% $110	+5% $59	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-4	-5% $53	+0% $110	+5% $167	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $148	base $110	+0.5pp $72	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	116d	1	0.15mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	110d	1	0.24mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	119d	1	0.32mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	119d	1	0.37mi
54 Colony Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	81d	1	0.60mi
54 Colony Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,495	$1.31	71d	1	0.60mi
4103 Rocky Fork Ter Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,845	$1.41	0d	1	0.68mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,025	$1.62	9d	1	0.71mi
9039 41st St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,165	$1.31	5d	1	0.78mi
6812 Coconut Grove Cir Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$1,750	$1.23	81d	1	0.94mi
482 Outer Dr Unit 1 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$2,200	$1.55	9d	1	0.94mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	98d	1	0.94mi
311 Holland St Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,499	$0.96	0d	1	0.95mi
5605 78th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,600	$1.84	63d	1	1.06mi
205 S Utrecht St Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,599	$1.10	0d	1	1.09mi
227 Endhoven St Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,499	$1.11	0d	1	1.09mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,250	$1.35	78d	1	1.14mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$1,976	$1.72	0d	54	1.35mi
5820 Mezzana Run Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,300	$1.40	9d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$268
• After-tax cash flow: $1,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 55+ age-qualified community home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a clean exterior. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B