3813 Vine Trl · Ellenton, FL 34222

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $270k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. This stunning, brand-new Skyline Home features the highly coveted Bayshore with Full Rear Porch floor plan, spanning 1,664 sq. ft. of masterfully designed living space. This 2 bedroom , 2 bath home creates an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings to create a bright, sophisticated atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired island kitchen, offering an expansive workspace and premium storage that makes both daily living and entertaining an absolute breeze. For relaxation, the spacious owner's suite serves as you

Key facts

• Guest room
• Dual vanities
• Walk in shower

Tags

• BAYSHORE WITH FULL REAR PORCH
• CHEF INSPIRED ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK IN SHOWER
• GUEST ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $149,000

Exterior

• Home design: Bayshore model; Single-story (plan name indicates a porch at the rear)
• Construction: Built as a spec home
• Exterior features: Full rear porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Bayshore plan with full rear porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.43%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,568
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3518 Mary Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-9%)	6mo	$125,000	$83	61
3445 71st Ave E	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,485 (-11%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	57
3607 70th Ave E	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,434 (-14%)	2mo	$275,000	$192	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,827
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $48,066
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $553	+0% $502	+5% $450	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $348	-5% $425	+0% $502	+5% $578	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $577	-0.5pp $539	base $502	+0.5pp $463	+1.0pp $424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	22d	1	0.15mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	15d	1	0.24mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	0.32mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	0.37mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	4d	1	0.71mi
9039 41st St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,445	$1.47	4d	1	0.78mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	4d	1	0.94mi
5605 78th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,800	$1.98	22d	1	1.06mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	4d	1	1.14mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	1.35mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $3,877
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$930
• After-tax cash flow: $5,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 55+ age-qualified community home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a clean exterior. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B