5838 Sierra Dr NW · Hollins, VA 24012

$258,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1967 0.27 ac lot Est $275k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very attractive clean home in a quiet desirable North County Neighborhood. Hardwood floors throughout. Level fenced back yard. Replacement tilt windows.

Key facts

• Level yard
• Carport
• Close to shopping

Tags

• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• CARPORT
• LEVEL YARD
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1967
• Exterior features: 0.27-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air gas heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Built-in microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Hollins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#126 in VA, #4,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Burlington Elementary (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 483 students, 78% FRL); Northside Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #116 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 627 students, 53% FRL); Northside High (math 80% / reading 87%, grade A, #30 of 319 statewide, top 10%, 950 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 22% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,281/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1360% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $258k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,140 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.10%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5838 Sierra Dr NW	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,728 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$153	97
1029 Anchor Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,716 (-1%)	21mo	$271,450	$158	78
6359 Greenway Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,716 (-1%)	7mo	$280,500	$163	65
1025 Grove Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,967 (+14%)	2mo	$300,000	$153	62
5702 Sierra Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-11%)	11mo	$245,000	$159	58
6334 Greenway Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-1%)	22mo	$294,950	$172	53
716 Fenwick Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,530 (-12%)	19mo	$210,000	$137	52
6603 Jojo Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,621 (-6%)	6mo	$288,329	$178	49
318 Clubhouse Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,469 (-15%)	9mo	$251,040	$171	35
5122 Hearthstone Rd NW	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,859 (+8%)	14mo	$190,000	$102	34
407 Bonhill Dr NW	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,971 (+14%)	11mo	$279,950	$142	26
151 Tampa Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (-14%)	16mo	$291,000	$196	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,815
• Equity at exit: $38,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $46,108
• Equity at exit: $22,350

Cash invested: $72,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24012

• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,356
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,551/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,121

Max offer price $258,500

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $200	+0% $126	+5% $53	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $36	+0% $126	+5% $217	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $192	base $126	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,625
• Closing costs: $7,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1017 Anchor Dr Roanoke, VA	4.0	2.5	1998	$2,800	$1.40	21d	1	0.03mi
6525 Greenway Dr Roanoke, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1071	$1,875	$1.75	14d	14	0.66mi
6500 Carefree Ln Apt 13 Hollins, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	14d	1	0.73mi
7114 South Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,750	$1.65	21d	1	0.90mi
6441 Archcrest Dr Hollins, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,549	$1.66	14d	8	0.96mi
1013 Barrens Village Ln Roanoke, VA	4.0	2.5	1664	$2,222	$1.34	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $258,500 Active
3. 2011-11-21
   soldstatus $140,000 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   Very attractive clean home in a quiet desirable North County Neighborhood. Hardwood floors throughout. Level fenced back yard. Replacement tilt windows.

4. 2011-11-21
   soldstatus $140,000

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   Very attractive clean home in a quiet desirable North County Neighborhood. Hardwood floors throughout. Level fenced back yard. Replacement tilt windows.

5. 2011-05-12
   listed $149,950 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   Very attractive clean home in a quiet desirable North County Neighborhood. Hardwood floors throughout. Level fenced back yard. Replacement tilt windows.

6. 1979-06-01
   soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,551 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,551 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,480
• − Property taxes: −$2,551
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,190
• − Management: −$2,190
• − Depreciation: −$7,520
• Taxable loss: −$2,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$683
• After-tax cash flow: $2,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hollins

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #4055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hollins, VA
• County: Roanoke City · 101,625 people
• City population: 29,212
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,235
• Household income: $52,973
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1360.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.94%
• Current HPI: 186.9007
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.46%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+462.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-03 Listed $258,500 MLSRV
• 2011-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-21 Sold (MLS) $140,000 MLSRV
• 2011-05-12 Listed $149,950 MLSRV
• 1979-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,551 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.