237 Shadow Ln · Keysville, VA 23947

$75,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1980 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

There are now multiple offers on this property. Multiple offer round expires on 06-07-2026 11:59 PM E. T. Seller will review offers on Monday. This Colonial style home presents solid bones and genuine potential for buyers ready to invest in updates and personalization. With four bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, the layout delivers functional space suited to various living arrangements. Inside, the primary suite features double closets for generous storage. A fireplace adds character and warmth to the interior. The corner lot positioning enhances visibility and offers flexible outdoor possibilities. A garden shed provides additional storage for tools and equipment. Historic farmland scenery surr

Key facts

• Double closets
• Garden shed
• Corner lot

Tags

• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• FIREPLACE
• CORNER LOT
• GARDEN SHED
• HISTORIC FARMLAND SCENERY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Floor furnace heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $910 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#261 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte County Public School District (rural): math 51% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 131 in VA (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.98%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,576
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8811 Church St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-8%)	22mo	$193,000	$107	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $45,783
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $114,469
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23947

• Home prices YoY: -14.9%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $602/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $910

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $952	-5% $931	+0% $910	+5% $888	+10% $867
Rent	-10% $771	-5% $840	+0% $910	+5% $979	+10% $1,048
Rate	-1.0pp $947	-0.5pp $929	base $910	+0.5pp $890	+1.0pp $870

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $75,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-02
   listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$602
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $10,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,473
• After-tax cash flow: $8,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100750
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $35,822
• Composite: 50.88/100
• National rank: #1794
• State rank: #59 of 131 in VA

Livability — Keysville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #9138

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing D- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keysville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,195

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,224 people
• By 2030: 10,663 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 9,445 · -15.8%
• By 2050: 8,271 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 5,985 · -46.7%
• By 2100: 3,716 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.4% · R 66.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+13.7 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.08%
• Current HPI: 171.9927
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $75,000 SCAR

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $602 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.