1550 20th Street West #36 · Rosamond, CA 93560

$105,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,065 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $111k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home. Ceiling fans throughout. Stove, refrigerator, and shed included in sale. Huge master bathroom tub you can soak in for hours after a long day.

Key facts

• Newer ac condenser
• Spa
• Park pool

Tags

• NEWER AC CONDENSER
• PARK POOL
• SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $106k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $948 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $106k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($732 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $106k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,593 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.36%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,760
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1550 20th Street West #55	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-1%)	4mo	$98,950	$94	90
1550 20th St W #83	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+8%)	3mo	$115,000	$100	79
2009 Westerly Dr #79	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-1%)	11mo	$95,000	$90	73
1550 W 20th Street West #53	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,213 (+14%)	17mo	$155,000	$128	57
2012 Windharp Dr #46	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+8%)	8mo	$117,450	$102	54
2113 Windcurrent Dr #132	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+8%)	23mo	$120,000	$104	48
1801 Marie Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+8%)	18mo	$180,000	$156	45
2024 Westerly Dr #96	0.36mi	2/2.0	924 (-13%)	23mo	$109,500	$119	42
2024 Westerly Dr #96	0.36mi	2/2.0	924 (-13%)	23mo	$109,500	$119	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $69,860
• Equity at exit: $44,131

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $168,257
• Equity at exit: $65,400

Cash invested: $29,666 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93560

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $861/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $948

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $105,950

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,008	-5% $978	+0% $948	+5% $918	+10% $888
Rent	-10% $786	-5% $867	+0% $948	+5% $1,029	+10% $1,110
Rate	-1.0pp $1,002	-0.5pp $975	base $948	+0.5pp $921	+1.0pp $893

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,488
• Closing costs: $3,178
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1943 Pengilley Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,600	$1.89	0d	1	0.40mi
2051 Candice Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,395	$1.78	16d	1	0.85mi
2541 Diamond St Unit 3 Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	0d	1	0.97mi
1857 Elm St #1 Rosamond, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	20d	1	1.02mi
1839 Elm St #4 Rosamond, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	13d	1	1.02mi
2634 Desert St Unit 8 Rosamond, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	0d	1	1.05mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1475	$2,000	$1.36	11d	1	1.08mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	0d	1	1.08mi
2821 Desert St Unit C Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,795	$1.84	0d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-09-25
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-29
   price $105,950
3. 2025-07-03
   listed $112,000 Active
4. 2017-12-26
   historical 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Gorgeous 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home. Ceiling fans throughout. Stove, refrigerator, and shed included in sale. Huge master bathroom tub you can soak in for hours after a long day.

5. 2017-12-22
   soldstatus $62,975 Closed 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Gorgeous 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home. Ceiling fans throughout. Stove, refrigerator, and shed included in sale. Huge master bathroom tub you can soak in for hours after a long day.

6. 2017-12-05
   status Pending 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Gorgeous 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home. Ceiling fans throughout. Stove, refrigerator, and shed included in sale. Huge master bathroom tub you can soak in for hours after a long day.

7. 2017-10-17
   listed $62,975 Active 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Gorgeous 3 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home. Ceiling fans throughout. Stove, refrigerator, and shed included in sale. Huge master bathroom tub you can soak in for hours after a long day.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,935
• − Property taxes: −$861
• − Insurance: −$530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$3,082
• Taxable income: $10,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,463
• After-tax cash flow: $8,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Kern Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,523
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8093
• State rank: #387 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rosamond

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #25952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosamond, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 22,119
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,119
• Household income: $77,431
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 403.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+68.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-25 Pending — AVMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $105,950 AVMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $112,000 AVMLS
• 2017-12-26 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2017-12-22 Sold (MLS) $62,975 AVMLS
• 2017-12-05 Pending — AVMLS
• 2017-10-17 Listed $62,975 AVMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $861 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.