271 Fletcher Rd · Dyer, TN 38330

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 319 Days on market

Built 1945 2.64 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your next cozy retreat! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath residence offers 1,104 sq ft of comfortable living space, complete with an office and a large laundry room. Sitting on 2.64 acres, the property provides extra room to spread out while still maintaining a manageable size. It includes a 1-car attached carport, a durable metal roof, and a covered front porch perfect for relaxing. Inside, you'll find a fully equipped kitchen with a dishwasher, stove/oven, refrigerator, and freezer. The home operates on county water and a septic tank, and additional comfort features include electric central heat and air. Outdoors, the property boasts a 24x28 wired workshop with two roll-up doors&

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Metal roof
• 2.64 acre lot

Tags

• FOUR POINT SIX FOUR ACRES
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• METAL ROOF
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ELECTRIC CENTRAL HEAT
• MULTIPLE SEPTIC CLEANOUTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned for single-family residential

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces total; 1-car carport; Gravel parking surface
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected (septic tank); Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Raised foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Raised foundation; Built as a single-story single-family home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Metal roof; County road frontage on an asphalt, public-maintained road; Has a view; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Wood window frames
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-497/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#234 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Gibson County Sp District (rural): math 47% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 139 in TN (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Gibson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Gibson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $135k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,413 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,680
• Equity at exit: $50,161

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $29,733
• Equity at exit: $69,962

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38330

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $378/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $127,591

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-3	+0% $-41	+5% $-80	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-79	+0% $-41	+5% $-4	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-7	base $-41	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 311 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 308 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 307 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 306 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 305 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 302 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 299 DOM
16. 2025-09-24
    price $134,900
17. 2025-09-06
    price $149,900
18. 2025-08-05
    listed $499,900 Active
19. 2022-01-04
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $378 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$580/yr (+$48/mo · 153.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$378
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$2,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$700
• After-tax cash flow: $203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gibson County Sp District
• NCES district ID: 4701400
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,868
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #4565
• State rank: #11 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dyer

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #17246

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,938

Population outlook (Gibson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,793 people
• By 2030: 48,221 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 46,793 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 44,909 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 40,191 · -17.6%
• By 2100: 33,574 · -31.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gibson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.6% · R 75.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -28.8pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+47.0 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Current HPI: 184.9194
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+149.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $134,900 CWTAR
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $149,900 CWTAR
• 2025-08-05 Listed $499,900 CWTAR
• 2022-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $378 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.