18A Sunset Rd · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$83,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,113 sqft · Townhouse · 32 Days on market

Built 1977 $145/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RT. 530 LFT SCHOOLHOUSE RD RT ONTO PENWOOD LFT ONTO SUNSET RD. SHEFFIELD WITH 1 1/2 BATHS C/A NEW GARAGE DOOR S/CW UPGRADED CARPET AND VINYL OPEN PATIO SOME STORMS

Key facts

• $145 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $895 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 5.5% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $580 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $84k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,383 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.74%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,905
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 A Sunset Rd	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,216 (+9%)	0mo	$225,000	$185	81
5 Stonybrook Ct Unit A	0.44mi	2/1.5	1,080 (-3%)	10mo	$230,000	$213	66
53-B Sunset Rd	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,113 (0%)	20mo	$225,000	$202	61
10-B Lenape Dr Unit B	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,216 (+9%)	2mo	$112,000	$92	53
3 Ironside Unit B	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,216 (+9%)	9mo	$99,000	$81	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $43,554
• Equity at exit: $12,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $111,849
• Equity at exit: $7,254

Cash invested: $23,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$440
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$105 /mo · $1,258/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $895

Break-even live

Break-even rent $917

Max offer price $83,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $953	-5% $924	+0% $895	+5% $866	+10% $837
Rent	-10% $733	-5% $814	+0% $895	+5% $976	+10% $1,057
Rate	-1.0pp $938	-0.5pp $917	base $895	+0.5pp $874	+1.0pp $852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,975
• Closing costs: $2,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	17d	1	0.20mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	25d	1	0.21mi
9A Juniper Ln Unit 50 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,950	$1.93	44d	1	0.63mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	44d	1	1.32mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	0d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2019-09-13
   status Pending
2. 2019-09-11
   historical
3. 2019-09-11
   status Pending
4. 2019-02-15
   status Under Contract
5. 2019-01-14
   listed $83,900 Active
6. 1997-03-25
   soldstatus $55,000 163-char remark

   Show marketing remark (163 chars)

   RT. 530 LFT SCHOOLHOUSE RD RT ONTO PENWOOD LFT ONTO SUNSET RD. SHEFFIELD WITH 1 1/2 BATHS C/A NEW GARAGE DOOR S/CW UPGRADED CARPET AND VINYL OPEN PATIO SOME STORMS

7. 1997-01-06
   historical 163-char remark

   Show marketing remark (163 chars)

   RT. 530 LFT SCHOOLHOUSE RD RT ONTO PENWOOD LFT ONTO SUNSET RD. SHEFFIELD WITH 1 1/2 BATHS C/A NEW GARAGE DOOR S/CW UPGRADED CARPET AND VINYL OPEN PATIO SOME STORMS

8. 1997-01-02
   listed $55,500 163-char remark

   Show marketing remark (163 chars)

   RT. 530 LFT SCHOOLHOUSE RD RT ONTO PENWOOD LFT ONTO SUNSET RD. SHEFFIELD WITH 1 1/2 BATHS C/A NEW GARAGE DOOR S/CW UPGRADED CARPET AND VINYL OPEN PATIO SOME STORMS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,700
• − Property taxes: −$1,258
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$2,441
• Taxable income: $10,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,428
• After-tax cash flow: $8,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+51.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2019-09-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-14 Listed $83,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-03-25 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MOMLS
• 1997-01-06 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1997-01-02 Listed $55,500 MOMLS