1609 Kathy · Dos Palos, CA 93620

$259,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1984 6,738 sqft lot Est $343k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Another Hot Deal! Dos Palos investment opportunity: a hard-to-find 1,405 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms. The property needs repairs, presenting a strong value-add project for a cash buyer. Highlights include a 4 bedrooms, large backyard and an indoor laundry room. This is an investor special, with the seller prioritizing cash buyers and a quick close.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Indoor laundry room
• 6,738 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public utilities; Electric service currently off
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition roof; Concrete foundation; No solar
• Exterior features: Rural setting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat and central air conditioning; Home has heating; Home has cooling
• Interior features: Inside laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($920/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#909 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Dos Palos Oro Loma Joint Unified (town): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #479 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dos Palos Elementary (539 students, 89% FRL); Bryant Middle (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #448 of 498 statewide, top 91%, 514 students, 89% FRL); Dos Palos High (math 12% / reading 52%, grade F, #674 of 1,170 statewide, top 59%, 665 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $260k implies a 766% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,578 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,912
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1358 Conner Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,606 (+7%)	2mo	$350,000	$218	73
1110 California Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (+1%)	5mo	$445,000	$293	65
2326 Santos St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-5%)	2mo	$310,000	$217	65
849 Golden Gate Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,555 (+3%)	6mo	$362,500	$233	56
1309 Center Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,613 (+7%)	6mo	$310,000	$192	55
2334 Santos St	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,648 (+10%)	10mo	$375,000	$228	54
1810 Lucerne	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-12%)	3mo	$350,000	$265	49
1218 California Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (-13%)	6mo	$330,000	$251	48
1726 Merced St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,359 (-10%)	1mo	$168,000	$124	48
1830 Valeria St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,313 (-13%)	4mo	$280,000	$213	45
815 California Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-6%)	11mo	$375,000	$265	42
1274 Dos Palos Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,707 (+14%)	3mo	$160,000	$94	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-37,254
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-26,240
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93620

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,810/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,159

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2674 Marguerite St Dos Palos, CA	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,400	$1.20	13d	1	0.23mi
2083 McTaggart Ave Dos Palos, CA	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,950	$1.47	43d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 349-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $259,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,810 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,810 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,810
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$838
• After-tax cash flow: $1,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dos Palos Oro Loma Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600033
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,926
• Composite: 14.95/100
• National rank: #9365
• State rank: #479 of 517 in CA

Livability — Dos Palos

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #909
• US rank: #24066

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dos Palos, CA
• Population (ZIP): 10,173

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% White 18% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 47% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.95%
• Current HPI: 277.4986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+766.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $259,900 FRESNOMLS
• 1998-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,810 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.