18812 Nicklaus Dr · Point Venture, TX 78645

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · Townhouse public records · 152 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 910 sqft lot $192/sqft · 11% below area Est $282k · 11% under $93/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover modern Hill Country elegance on the exclusive Point Venture peninsula! This sleek townhome offers the perfect blend of privacy and resort living, featuring a downstairs private primary suite, offering the convenience of single-level living for the owner. Upstairs is one bedroom and a versatile loft providing a dedicated space for sleep or restoration and ideal for siblings, guests or a home office. Located just 20 miles from Austin and 45 to downtown, you’ll have access to a private beach, a resident-only pool, pickleball, and the prestigious Jimmy Demaret-designed golf course, consistently ranked as one of the top 9-hole courses in Texas! Whether you're looking for a luxury lock-and-leave residence or a high-end vacation rental, this Lago Vista gem delivers unparalleled access to Lake Travis and local wineries. This townhome is an exceptional setup for a full-time residence, a sophisticated second home, or a high-performing vacation rental. Whether you’re seeking a serene Hill Country escape or a turnkey investment in a thriving lakeside community, this property represents the very best of Lake Travis living. Schedule your private tour today and see why Point Venture is the area’s best-kept secret!

Key facts

• Pickleball
• Private beach
• Local wineries

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• RESIDENT ONLY POOL
• PRIVATE BEACH
• PICKLEBALL
• ACCESS TO LAKE TRAVIS
• LOCAL WINERIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.3% in Point Venture — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#509 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1256 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,875 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.45%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,209
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -11.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Demarett Dr #12	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,398 (+7%)	4mo	$119,900	$86	78
18904 Nicklaus Dr	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,188 (-9%)	6mo	$230,000	$194	72
512 Palmer Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,244 (-4%)	23mo	$269,000	$216	70
508 Palmer Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,244 (-4%)	23mo	$269,000	$216	70
18802 Nicklaus Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,153 (-11%)	14mo	$278,950	$242	66
18804 Nicklaus Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,153 (-11%)	15mo	$279,000	$242	66
109 Comanche Pt	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+8%)	24mo	$352,900	$251	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-60,541
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-77,944
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active
• Months of supply: 33.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $265,000 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 131 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1256
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$571 /mo · $6,853/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $193,875

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-247	+0% $-318	+5% $-388	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-406	+0% $-318	+5% $-230	+10% $-142
Rate	-1.0pp $-192	-0.5pp $-254	base $-318	+0.5pp $-382	+1.0pp $-448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
537 Demarett Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,999	$1.21	42d	1	0.10mi
537 Demarett Dr Unit Na Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,989	$1.21	93d	1	0.10mi
206 Fairway Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,175	$1.42	67d	1	0.23mi
539 Venture Blvd S Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,900	$1.92	12d	1	0.47mi
115 Comanche Pt Point Venture, TX	3.0	3.0	1809	$2,150	$1.19	21d	1	0.73mi
414 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,825	$1.47	93d	1	0.75mi
430 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,300	$1.46	73d	1	0.81mi
430 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,895	$1.49	48d	1	0.81mi
325 Southwind Rd Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,200	$1.34	25d	1	0.86mi
1 Madrone Estates CV Lakeway, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1117	$2,357	$2.11	9d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail $93/mo · $1,116/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $250,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $250,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $250,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $250,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $250,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $250,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $250,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 129 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $250,000 Active 128 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $250,000 Active 127 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $250,000 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,000 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 120 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $250,000 Active 119 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 118 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 116 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 115 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 114 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 113 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $250,000 Active 112 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,000 Active 111 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $250,000 Active 110 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $250,000 Active 109 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 107 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 105 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 104 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 101 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 99 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 96 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 92 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,853 · $571/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,853 · $571/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,853
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,925
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,510–$19,530 screening

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a great blend of privacy and resort living, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lago Vista El F TX #1,545/4,322 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Lago Vista Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Lago Vista H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Point Venture

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #10087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Venture, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10769.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $275,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-04 Rental Removed $2,100 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed for Rent $2,100 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-02 Rental Removed $2,100 ACTRIS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $285,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed for Rent $2,100 ACTRIS
• 2024-04-23 Rental Removed $2,100 ACTRIS
• 2024-04-23 Rental Removed $2,100 CTXMLS
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $2,100 ACTRIS
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $2,100 CTXMLS
• 2024-02-13 Listed for Rent $2,300 ACTRIS
• 2024-01-28 Rental Removed $2,300 ACTRIS
• 2023-10-31 Listed for Rent $2,300 CTXMLS
• 2023-10-28 Listed for Rent $2,300 ACTRIS
• 2022-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+65.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,853 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.