509 W Ford St · Shawnee, OK 74801

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 855 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1925 7,000 sqft lot Est $92k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming bungalow invites you to kick back on the welcoming, rocking chair front porch! Once inside, what you see is what you get! All furniture and appliances included! Spacious living and dining area, inside laundry room, large fenced back yard and covered wood deck. Detached garage for single car or storage.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1925

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Shawnee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#217 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Shawnee (town): math 11% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #238 of 270 in OK (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 183 units permitted in Pottawatomie County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pottawatomie County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $105k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,072 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $92,340
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
538 W Wood St	0.12mi	2/1.0	832 (-3%)	8mo	$90,000	$108	84
318 W Dill St	0.16mi	2/1.0	896 (+5%)	6mo	$75,000	$84	79
915 N Jefferson Pl	0.12mi	2/1.0	900 (+5%)	10mo	$129,000	$143	77
1108 W Dewey St	0.43mi	2/2.0	865 (+1%)	7mo	$149,900	$173	68
517 N Ione Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	900 (+5%)	7mo	$95,000	$106	62
1300 W Dewey St	0.61mi	2/1.0	948 (+11%)	20mo	$72,400	$76	37
524 N Bell Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	969 (+13%)	21mo	$112,500	$116	30
228 N Kickapoo Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	943 (+10%)	22mo	$69,000	$73	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-8,645
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,666
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74801

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $164	+0% $135	+5% $105	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $95	+0% $135	+5% $174	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $161	base $135	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 N Aydelotte Ave Shawnee, OK	2.0	2.0	864	$1,250	$1.45	5d	1	0.50mi
825 N. Broadway 01/13/2018 12:00 AM Shawnee, OK	1.0	1.0	679	$700	$1.03	5d	1	0.89mi
315 S Kennedy Ave Shawnee, OK	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$699	$0.71	24d	5	1.16mi
1001 E Independence St Shawnee, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0	690	$900	$1.30	5d	2	1.36mi
1810 N Harrison St Shawnee, OK	1.0	1.0–1.5	675	$762	$1.13	24d	2	1.39mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-12
   listed $105,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$207/yr (+$17/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$961
• − Management: −$961
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $1,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shawnee
• NCES district ID: 4027570
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $32,128
• Composite: 11.21/100
• National rank: #9724
• State rank: #238 of 270 in OK

Livability — Shawnee

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #15593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shawnee, OK
• County: Pottawatomie County · 45,194 people
• City population: 45,194
• Metro: Shawnee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 21,967
• Household income: $55,077
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 594.0

Population outlook (Pottawatomie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,622 people
• By 2030: 78,816 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 82,766 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 86,031 · +12.3%
• By 2075: 93,316 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 95,820 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Native American 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pottawatomie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.2% · R 72.7% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.1pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.66%
• Current HPI: 266.7965
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Shawnee, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+377.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $105,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-17 Sold (MLS) $61,000 MLSOK
• 2019-03-19 Pending — MLSOK
• 2019-03-13 Listed $69,500 MLSOK
• 2012-08-29 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2012-02-28 Listed $44,900 MLSOK
• 1999-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 1996-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $738 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.