3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Built 1973 $172/sqft · 15% below area Est $271k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous Home– A perfect place to live! Bright and open floor plan: Gleaming hardwood floors,warm interior colors,custom interior shutters over dual pane windows,modern baseboards,crown molding throughout,ceiling fans,recessed lighting. Expansive living room: abundant natural light,ceiling fan with lights,seamless flow into the dining room w/a charming chandelier. Well-appointed kitchen: upgraded white shaker-style cabinets,quartz countertops,pantry cabinet w/lots of pull-out drawers. Incl.SS deep sink, dishwasher,French door refrigerator,gas stove with hood. Family room: ceiling fan/lights, recessed lighting and a framed sliding glass door w/sliding shutters. Spacious master bedroom: Includes ceiling fan with light,built-in closet and adj. master bath with white shaker style dual vanity,quartz countertop,elegant lighting,walk-in closet,modern walk-in shower w/clear-glass shower doors,comfort-height toilet,window. 2nd bedroom: Generously sized w/large built-in closet,ceiling fan w/light,access to the hallway bathroom. Hall bathroom: white shaker-style sink vanity w/quartz countertop,tile flooring,modern walk-in shower w/clear-glass shower doors, comfort-height toilet. Convenient laundry room w washer/dryer, white storage cabinets.Welcoming front porch,side yard.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1973
• Listed 58 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $230k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.74%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,503
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -14.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,340 (0%)	0mo	$230,000	$172	100
3231 Vineyard #37	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	86
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,413 (+5%)	3mo	$287,000	$203	86
3263 Vineyard Ave. #35 #35	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	3mo	$295,000	$216	85
3231 Vineyard Ave #132	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-7%)	7mo	$159,000	$127	83
3263 Vineyard #68	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-3%)	2mo	$275,000	$212	81
3263 Vineyard Ave #89	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-7%)	3mo	$280,000	$224	81
3231 Vineyard Ave #76	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (+7%)	2mo	$370,000	$259	80
3231 Vineyard Ave., #102 #102	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	9mo	$205,000	$142	80
3263 Vineyard #132	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	5mo	$185,000	$148	77
3231 Vineyard Ave #141 #141	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-12%)	3mo	$236,000	$200	74
3263 Vineyard Ave #178	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+8%)	8mo	$238,000	$165	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $44,453
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $177,296
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,421 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $1,113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,272	-5% $1,193	+0% $1,113	+5% $1,034	+10% $954
Rent	-10% $843	-5% $978	+0% $1,113	+5% $1,248	+10% $1,383
Rate	-1.0pp $1,229	-0.5pp $1,172	base $1,113	+0.5pp $1,053	+1.0pp $993

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	44d	1	0.58mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	21d	1	0.60mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$2,940	$3.40	2d	14	0.70mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	17d	1	0.74mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	44d	1	0.75mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1848	$4,800	$2.60	4d	1	0.80mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	829	$3,436	$4.14	2d	5	0.86mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	24d	1	0.93mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	2d	1	1.20mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,500	$3.58	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-16
   price $230,000 1288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1288 chars)

   Fabulous Home– A perfect place to live! Bright and open floor plan: Gleaming hardwood floors,warm interior colors,custom interior shutters over dual pane windows,modern baseboards,crown molding throughout,ceiling fans,recessed lighting. Expansive living room: abundant natural light,ceiling fan with lights,seamless flow into the dining room w/a charming chandelier. Well-appointed kitchen: upgraded white shaker-style cabinets,quartz countertops,pantry cabinet w/lots of pull-out drawers. Incl.SS deep sink, dishwasher,French door refrigerator,gas stove with hood. Family room: ceiling fan/lights, recessed lighting and a framed sliding glass door w/sliding shutters. Spacious master bedroom: Includes ceiling fan with light,built-in closet and adj. master bath with white shaker style dual vanity,quartz countertop,elegant lighting,walk-in closet,modern walk-in shower w/clear-glass shower doors,comfort-height toilet,window. 2nd bedroom: Generously sized w/large built-in closet,ceiling fan w/light,access to the hallway bathroom. Hall bathroom: white shaker-style sink vanity w/quartz countertop,tile flooring,modern walk-in shower w/clear-glass shower doors, comfort-height toilet. Convenient laundry room w washer/dryer, white storage cabinets.Welcoming front porch,side yard.

2. 2026-04-01
   listed $245,000 Active 1288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1288 chars)

   Fabulous Home– A perfect place to live! Bright and open floor plan: Gleaming hardwood floors,warm interior colors,custom interior shutters over dual pane windows,modern baseboards,crown molding throughout,ceiling fans,recessed lighting. Expansive living room: abundant natural light,ceiling fan with lights,seamless flow into the dining room w/a charming chandelier. Well-appointed kitchen: upgraded white shaker-style cabinets,quartz countertops,pantry cabinet w/lots of pull-out drawers. Incl.SS deep sink, dishwasher,French door refrigerator,gas stove with hood. Family room: ceiling fan/lights, recessed lighting and a framed sliding glass door w/sliding shutters. Spacious master bedroom: Includes ceiling fan with light,built-in closet and adj. master bath with white shaker style dual vanity,quartz countertop,elegant lighting,walk-in closet,modern walk-in shower w/clear-glass shower doors,comfort-height toilet,window. 2nd bedroom: Generously sized w/large built-in closet,ceiling fan w/light,access to the hallway bathroom. Hall bathroom: white shaker-style sink vanity w/quartz countertop,tile flooring,modern walk-in shower w/clear-glass shower doors, comfort-height toilet. Convenient laundry room w washer/dryer, white storage cabinets.Welcoming front porch,side yard.

3. 2016-09-01
   soldstatus $125,000 Sold 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Priced to sell,cosmetic fixer in great area close to Club House.Backs up to Redwood lined walking path around Park.Large screend porch,upgraded heater and AC.Copper wiring,large outside storage unit.2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1344 square Feet Senior park 55+Buyer must be approved by park

4. 2016-08-15
   status Pending 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Priced to sell,cosmetic fixer in great area close to Club House.Backs up to Redwood lined walking path around Park.Large screend porch,upgraded heater and AC.Copper wiring,large outside storage unit.2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1344 square Feet Senior park 55+Buyer must be approved by park

5. 2016-07-31
   price $139,950 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Priced to sell,cosmetic fixer in great area close to Club House.Backs up to Redwood lined walking path around Park.Large screend porch,upgraded heater and AC.Copper wiring,large outside storage unit.2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1344 square Feet Senior park 55+Buyer must be approved by park

6. 2016-07-21
   listed $144,950 New 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Priced to sell,cosmetic fixer in great area close to Club House.Backs up to Redwood lined walking path around Park.Large screend porch,upgraded heater and AC.Copper wiring,large outside storage unit.2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1344 square Feet Senior park 55+Buyer must be approved by park

7. 2001-11-08
   soldstatus $95,000
8. 2001-10-10
   historical
9. 2001-04-25
   listed $104,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,284
• − Management: −$3,284
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $10,308
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,474
• After-tax cash flow: $10,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+119.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $230,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $245,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-09-01 Sold (MLS) $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-08-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-07-31 Price Changed $139,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-07-21 Listed $144,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-11-08 Sold (MLS) $95,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-10-10 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-04-25 Listed $104,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR