Barlow Plan · Baytown, TX 77521

$294,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,254 sqft · SingleFamily · 358 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 358 days

🏗️ New construction. The $294,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $372,118.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-721 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Banuelos El (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 765 students, 79% FRL); Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 61% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,202 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.31%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,118
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: -20.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9231 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,039 (-10%)	1mo	$286,990	$141	83
9215 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,039 (-10%)	1mo	$286,990	$141	78
9515 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-13%)	1mo	$299,990	$152	78
9315 Golden Dorado Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	2mo	$308,990	$150	75
9322 Golden Dorado Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	1mo	$324,990	$158	75
9315 Zander Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	1mo	$324,990	$158	73
5307 Yellow Perch Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	1mo	$316,990	$154	71
5407 Peacock Bass Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	2mo	$312,990	$152	70
5506 Sailfish Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,548 (+13%)	1mo	$397,990	$156	68
9319 Zander Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-14%)	1mo	$319,990	$164	59
9606 Sterling Arbor Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,019 (-10%)	1mo	$310,000	$154	53
9623 Sterling Arbor Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,956 (-13%)	1mo	$292,500	$150	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-109,741
• Equity at exit: $55,484

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-168,626
• Equity at exit: $32,174

Cash invested: $104,193 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,951
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$465 /mo · $5,582/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,255

Max offer price $267,726

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-464	-5% $-593	+0% $-721	+5% $-850	+10% $-979
Rent	-10% $-906	-5% $-814	+0% $-721	+5% $-629	+10% $-536
Rate	-1.0pp $-534	-0.5pp $-627	base $-721	+0.5pp $-818	+1.0pp $-916

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,030
• Closing costs: $11,164
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4606 Wild Flora Way Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,366	$1.04	14d	1	0.50mi
4510 Red Yucca Dr Baytown, TX	5.0	3.0	2779	$2,650	$0.95	3d	1	0.57mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,265	$1.37	0d	1	0.70mi
9502 Brookside Point Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2119	$2,800	$1.32	45d	1	0.81mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	26d	1	0.86mi
6102 Bayou Birch Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2709	$2,750	$1.02	26d	1	0.89mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	7d	1	0.90mi
5426 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$2,200	$0.98	45d	1	0.94mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	19d	1	1.08mi
8026 Rosemary Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2390	$2,150	$0.90	45d	1	1.13mi
4306 Apple Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	3.5	2713	$2,376	$0.88	0d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,990 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 355 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 354 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 353 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 352 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 350 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 344 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $294,990 Active 341 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 340 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 339 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 338 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 337 DOM
14. 2025-06-28
    listed $294,990 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,844
• − Property taxes: −$5,582
• − Insurance: −$1,861
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − Depreciation: −$10,825
• Taxable loss: −$15,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-28 Listed $294,990 Zillow