77 Creekside Dr #77 · Half Moon Bay, CA 94019

$450,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1976 $335/sqft · at area comps Est $462k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set in the coastal community of Canada Cove, 77 Creekside Drive offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,344 square feet of light filled living. The home is thoughtfully positioned to take advantage of its natural surroundings, creating a calm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The oversized primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat, complete with a walk in closet and sliding glass doors that open to a grassy field and walking trail, with views extending toward The Ocean Course at Half Moon Bay Golf Links. Inside, the layout flows easily, providing a functional and relaxed setting for everyday living. Natural light fills the main living areas, enhancing the home's warm and open feel. Just minutes from the beach, the home is part of a well maintained community known for scenic walking paths, a seasonal heated pool, fitness center, and a welcoming neighborhood environment, offering a refined sense of coastal living in one of Half Moon Bay's most desirable settings.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Sliding glass doors
• Seasonal heated pool

Tags

• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• SEASONAL HEATED POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Garden/greenbelt/trails; Gym/exercise facility; Recreation room

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport (1); Assigned space number 77
• Utilities: Public sewer; Individual electric meters; Individual gas meters; Individual water meter
• Home design: Senior community (one resident 55+)
• Exterior features: Rolled composition roof; Leased land (park home site)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl/Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with shower and tub
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Skylight(s); Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-620 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.3% in Half Moon Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#78 in CA, #2,976 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Cabrillo Unified (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #498 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvin S. Hatch Elementary (542 students, 46% FRL); Manuel F. Cunha Intermediate (584 students, 41% FRL); Half Moon Bay High (1,024 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,019 units permitted in San Mateo County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Mateo County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $315,184 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.90%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,500
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Lighthouse Rd #03	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$460,000	$342	91
37 Oceanview Ave #37	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$525,000	$391	89
3 Coral Way #3	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$510,000	$379	86
106 Ocean Vw #106	0.10mi	2/1.5	1,296 (-4%)	5mo	$375,000	$289	83
8 Coral Way #8	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$255,000	$177	82
84 Creekside #84	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (+6%)	6mo	$510,000	$358	79
10 Sunset Ter #10	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	9mo	$475,000	$341	78
22 Sea Breeze Dr #22	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$260,000	$181	76
23 Sea Breeze Dr #23	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (-8%)	3mo	$440,000	$355	75
52 Oceanview Ave #52	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$186,000	$129	72
14 Driftwood Trl #14	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	3mo	$465,000	$303	69
10 Coral Way #10	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (+14%)	5mo	$610,000	$399	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-112,353
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-148,481
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94019

• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,937

Max offer price $360,300

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-309	-5% $-464	+0% $-620	+5% $-775	+10% $-931
Rent	-10% $-869	-5% $-744	+0% $-620	+5% $-495	+10% $-371
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-505	base $-620	+0.5pp $-737	+1.0pp $-855

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $450,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $450,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $450,000 Active 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    Set in the coastal community of Canada Cove, 77 Creekside Drive offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,344 square feet of light filled living. The home is thoughtfully positioned to take advantage of its natural surroundings, creating a calm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The oversized primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat, complete with a walk in closet and sliding glass doors that open to a grassy field and walking trail, with views extending toward The Ocean Course at Half Moon Bay Golf Links. Inside, the layout flows easily, providing a functional and relaxed setting for everyday living. Natural light fills the main living areas, enhancing the home's warm and open feel. Just minutes from the beach, the home is part of a well maintained community known for scenic walking paths, a seasonal heated pool, fitness center, and a welcoming neighborhood environment, offering a refined sense of coastal living in one of Half Moon Bay's most desirable settings.

18. 2026-05-01
    listed $450,000 Active 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    Set in the coastal community of Canada Cove, 77 Creekside Drive offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,344 square feet of light filled living. The home is thoughtfully positioned to take advantage of its natural surroundings, creating a calm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The oversized primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat, complete with a walk in closet and sliding glass doors that open to a grassy field and walking trail, with views extending toward The Ocean Course at Half Moon Bay Golf Links. Inside, the layout flows easily, providing a functional and relaxed setting for everyday living. Natural light fills the main living areas, enhancing the home's warm and open feel. Just minutes from the beach, the home is part of a well maintained community known for scenic walking paths, a seasonal heated pool, fitness center, and a welcoming neighborhood environment, offering a refined sense of coastal living in one of Half Moon Bay's most desirable settings.

19. 2017-12-08
    soldstatus $409,000
20. 2017-12-08
    soldstatus $409,000
21. 2017-12-08
    listed $419,000
22. 2017-12-08
    listed $419,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,026
• − Management: −$3,026
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$15,527
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,727
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabrillo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606780
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $105,943
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #6651
• State rank: #498 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Half Moon Bay

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2976

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Half Moon Bay, CA
• County: San Mateo County · 733,415 people
• City population: 14,419
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,419
• Household income: $153,781
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 188.0

Population outlook (San Mateo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 864,008 people
• By 2030: 910,523 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 997,285 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 1,071,189 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 1,197,206 · +38.6%
• By 2100: 1,192,523 · +38.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 19% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Mateo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.3) · D 73.5% · R 23.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 48.7pp · 2024: 50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.3 2020: D+57.7 2016: D+57.7 2012: D+44.8 2008: D+48.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -983.61%
• Current HPI: 299.1885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $450,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $450,000 MLSListings
• 2017-12-08 Listed $419,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-12-08 Listed $419,000 MLSListings
• 2017-12-08 Sold (MLS) $409,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-12-08 Sold (MLS) $409,000 MLSListings