21081 Pleasant Plains Pkwy · Connerton, FL 34637

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2017 5,592 sqft lot Est $349k · 7% under $87/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction - This beautiful one story 1574 sq. ft. "Charleston" home has three bedrooms, two baths and a two car rear garage. All appliances are included . .. .. .. .. even the washer and dryer. Nearby Wesley Chapel offers great shopping and dining opportunities. Convenient to Hwy 41 for easy access to nature preserves, Florida’s Beaches and downtown Tampa. Residents have access to the fitness center, resort-style pool, tennis courts and more!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Covered front porch
• Open floor plan

Tags

• COTTAGE STYLE HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINET SPACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,608 square feet; Total rooms: 6
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle Management; HOA required; Quarterly association fee of $261 (approximately $87/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces northwest; MPUD zoning
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.13 acre lot (approx. 117 x 47 x 117 x 48)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Front porch; Patio; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Paved lot; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $204k; list at $325k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,176 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21422 Diamonte Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+5%)	2mo	$328,000	$194	78
20907 Diamonte Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+5%)	3mo	$340,000	$201	74
8432 Tarocco Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+9%)	6mo	$425,000	$243	71
8144 Ambersweet Pl	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-1%)	2mo	$310,000	$195	68
20904 Tangor Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+2%)	0mo	$285,000	$173	67
21005 Wistful Yearn Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+0%)	7mo	$350,000	$217	64
20907 Tangor Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+4%)	2mo	$345,000	$205	64
8128 Ambersweet Pl	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,666 (+4%)	4mo	$379,900	$228	61
8205 Ponkan Rd	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+9%)	1mo	$340,000	$194	58
8033 Shaddock Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	9mo	$385,000	$236	58
9264 Bella Vita Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+10%)	3mo	$400,000	$226	57
21351 Morning Mist Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,403 (-13%)	2mo	$395,000	$282	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-49,334
• Equity at exit: $70,113

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-45,862
• Equity at exit: $66,753

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,752 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,217/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$87
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,094

Max offer price $277,140

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-178	+0% $-270	+5% $-362	+10% $-454
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-379	+0% $-270	+5% $-162	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-188	base $-270	+0.5pp $-355	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21030 Green Wing Ct Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,185	$1.12	25d	1	0.80mi
7655 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2070	$3,100	$1.50	11d	1	0.89mi
7442 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,470	$1.19	25d	1	1.10mi
20191 Sabal Palm Ct Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1404	$3,338	$2.38	0d	21	1.17mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	13d	1	1.19mi
20716 Eustis Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,050	$1.41	2d	1	1.24mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	18d	1	1.26mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	15d	1	1.32mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	13d	1	1.39mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	6d	1	1.39mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	0d	1	1.39mi
8710 Preston Woods Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,850	$1.69	18d	1	1.40mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	25d	1	1.41mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	25d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $87 · $1,044/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $324,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $324,900
15. 2026-04-28
    price $329,900
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $335,000 Active
17. 2017-03-29
    soldstatus $203,940 Sold 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Under Construction - This beautiful one story 1574 sq. ft. "Charleston" home has three bedrooms, two baths and a two car rear garage. All appliances are included . .. .. .. .. even the washer and dryer. Nearby Wesley Chapel offers great shopping and dining opportunities. Convenient to Hwy 41 for easy access to nature preserves, Florida’s Beaches and downtown Tampa. Residents have access to the fitness center, resort-style pool, tennis courts and more!

18. 2017-03-17
    price $187,625 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Under Construction - This beautiful one story 1574 sq. ft. "Charleston" home has three bedrooms, two baths and a two car rear garage. All appliances are included . .. .. .. .. even the washer and dryer. Nearby Wesley Chapel offers great shopping and dining opportunities. Convenient to Hwy 41 for easy access to nature preserves, Florida’s Beaches and downtown Tampa. Residents have access to the fitness center, resort-style pool, tennis courts and more!

19. 2017-03-17
    status Pending 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Under Construction - This beautiful one story 1574 sq. ft. "Charleston" home has three bedrooms, two baths and a two car rear garage. All appliances are included . .. .. .. .. even the washer and dryer. Nearby Wesley Chapel offers great shopping and dining opportunities. Convenient to Hwy 41 for easy access to nature preserves, Florida’s Beaches and downtown Tampa. Residents have access to the fitness center, resort-style pool, tennis courts and more!

20. 2017-03-16
    price $203,940 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Under Construction - This beautiful one story 1574 sq. ft. "Charleston" home has three bedrooms, two baths and a two car rear garage. All appliances are included . .. .. .. .. even the washer and dryer. Nearby Wesley Chapel offers great shopping and dining opportunities. Convenient to Hwy 41 for easy access to nature preserves, Florida’s Beaches and downtown Tampa. Residents have access to the fitness center, resort-style pool, tennis courts and more!

21. 2017-03-02
    listed $203,940 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Under Construction - This beautiful one story 1574 sq. ft. "Charleston" home has three bedrooms, two baths and a two car rear garage. All appliances are included . .. .. .. .. even the washer and dryer. Nearby Wesley Chapel offers great shopping and dining opportunities. Convenient to Hwy 41 for easy access to nature preserves, Florida’s Beaches and downtown Tampa. Residents have access to the fitness center, resort-style pool, tennis courts and more!

22. 2015-01-05
    soldstatus $5,400,000
23. 2010-05-26
    soldstatus $1,579,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,217 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,217 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$6,217
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,642
• − Management: −$2,642
• − HOA: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$8,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,112
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-79.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $324,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-29 Sold (MLS) $203,940 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-17 Price Changed $187,625 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-16 Price Changed $203,940 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-02 Listed $203,940 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $5,400,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,579,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,217 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.