1307 Flint Ave · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$281,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,136 sqft · Land · 103 Days on market

Built 2025 5,175 sqft lot $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1307 Flint Avenue! The Jayde is a two-story, four bedroom, two-and-a-half bath home with modern and functional design features. The main floor showcases an open concept layout with a spacious kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry and direct access to the covered patio. Just off the kitchen is a convenient laundry room and powder bath. A dedicated study near the front entrance provides ideal space for a home office or flex room. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and private suite bath. Three additional bedrooms share a second full bathroom, and a cozy alcove near the stairs. This thoughtfully designed layout balances shared living space with private re

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• DEDICATED STUDY

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,583 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $147,725
• Equity at exit: $254,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $439,288
• Equity at exit: $547,845

Cash invested: $78,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,150

Max offer price $266,095

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-10	+0% $-90	+5% $-170	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-170	+0% $-90	+5% $-10	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $-18	base $-90	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,498
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	45d	1	0.19mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.28mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.32mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	15d	1	0.71mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	0.75mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	45d	1	0.75mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	15d	1	0.77mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	45d	1	0.84mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	45d	1	0.91mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	23d	1	0.95mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	15d	2	0.98mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	15d	1	1.02mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	15d	1	1.06mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	45d	1	1.21mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	45d	1	1.29mi
213 Wildcat St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2811	$2,800	$1.00	15d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-07
   listed $281,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,160 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,308/yr (+$359/mo · 505.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,203
• Taxable loss: −$6,112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,467
• After-tax cash flow: $387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $281,990 LARMLS