Pinehollow Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$242,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 771 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $242,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,003.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 771 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $213,839 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 771 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,003
• List price: $242,999
• Delta: -16.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 Goose Pond Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-9%)	3mo	$219,000	$146	72
1405 Grove Pond Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (-9%)	0mo	$285,000	$189	70
1902 Flaxen Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-12%)	4mo	$229,499	$157	68
1305 Acton Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,902 (+15%)	3mo	$286,589	$151	67
1409 Fairfield Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-0%)	3mo	$239,999	$146	62
1142 Redcoat Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+9%)	3mo	$283,990	$158	59
1024 Barkers Pond Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (-8%)	1mo	$254,890	$168	59
1422 Fairfield Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (+2%)	4mo	$224,900	$132	58
1759 Gleasondale Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,726 (+4%)	3mo	$259,990	$151	56
1795 Gleasondale Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (-3%)	4mo	$304,890	$190	53
1021 Baker Bridge Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,809 (+9%)	3mo	$279,900	$155	48
106 Zion Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,805 (+9%)	4mo	$309,990	$172	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-60,869
• Equity at exit: $43,390

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,429
• Equity at exit: $25,161

Cash invested: $81,481 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 103 active · 72 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.1 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,000 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 3349
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $268,106

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-58	+0% $-158	+5% $-259	+10% $-359
Rent	-10% $-344	-5% $-251	+0% $-158	+5% $-66	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-84	base $-158	+0.5pp $-234	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,751
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1527 Flannagan Pond Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,950	$1.33	36d	1	0.12mi
1527 Flannagan Pond Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,890	$1.29	10d	1	0.12mi
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,400	$1.41	119d	1	0.23mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	134d	1	0.27mi
1116 Redcoat Dr Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2059	$2,195	$1.07	86d	1	0.30mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	184d	1	0.32mi
1622 Havenrock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,600	$1.20	107d	1	0.40mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	135d	1	0.41mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,195	$1.28	82d	1	0.44mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	143d	1	0.44mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,150	$1.51	135d	1	0.44mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	184d	1	0.44mi
602 Diamond Creek Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,950	$1.15	10d	1	0.44mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	157d	1	0.46mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,225	$1.04	65d	1	0.46mi
1106 Arborwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2017	$2,495	$1.24	10d	1	0.48mi
1503 Gentle Night Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,650	$1.56	10d	1	0.50mi
1122 Arborwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1718	$2,200	$1.28	129d	1	0.51mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,500	$1.30	71d	1	0.51mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,749	$1.23	10d	1	0.51mi
765 Knoxbridge Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2097	$2,395	$1.14	3d	1	0.52mi
1521 Vista Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,821	$1.09	43d	1	0.52mi
1521 Vista Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,705	$1.02	36d	1	0.52mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	184d	1	0.52mi
1130 Arborwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,200	$1.29	56d	1	0.52mi
2301 Kirkstall Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,800	$1.61	86d	1	0.53mi
2215 Overton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,045	$0.93	10d	1	0.56mi
2308 Kirkstall Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,600	$1.48	5d	1	0.56mi
1350 Eldridge Pond St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$2,500	$1.19	10d	1	0.59mi
1422 Fairfield Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,900	$1.12	29d	1	0.61mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	184d	1	0.62mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	184d	1	0.64mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	165d	1	0.65mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	153d	1	0.67mi
1774 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$2,200	$1.09	52d	1	0.68mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,071	$1.26	134d	1	0.70mi
735 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1988	$1,800	$0.91	10d	1	0.70mi
2157 Winsbury Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,300	$1.18	113d	1	0.71mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	127d	1	0.73mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	135d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $242,999 Active 771 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $242,999 Active 770 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $242,999 Active 769 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $242,999 Active 768 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on marketlisting id $242,999 Active 767 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $262,999 Active 446 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $262,999 Active 445 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $262,999 Active 444 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $262,999 Active 443 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $262,999 Active 442 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $262,999 Active 441 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $262,999 Active 440 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $262,999 Active 439 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $262,999 Active 438 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $262,999 Active 437 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $262,999 Active 436 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $262,999 Active 435 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $262,999 Active 434 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $262,999 Active 433 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $262,999 Active 432 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $262,999 Active 431 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $262,999 Active 430 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $262,999 Active 429 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $262,999 Active 428 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $262,999 Active 427 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $262,999 Active 426 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $262,999 Active 425 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $262,999 Active 424 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $262,999 Active 423 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $262,999 Active 422 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $262,999 Active 421 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $262,999 Active 420 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $262,999 Active 419 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $262,999 Active 418 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $262,999 Active 417 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $262,999 Active 416 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $262,999 Active 415 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $262,999 Active 414 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $262,999 Active 412 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $262,999 Active 411 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $262,999 Active 410 DOM
42. 2026-09-26
    days on market $262,999 Active 409 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $262,999 Active 408 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $262,999 Active 407 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $262,999 Active 406 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $262,999 Active 405 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $262,999 Active 404 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $262,999 Active 403 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $262,999 Active 402 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $262,999 Active 401 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,301
• − Property taxes: −$4,365
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − Depreciation: −$8,466
• Taxable loss: −$6,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,667
• After-tax cash flow: $-232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready. Value can be increased with minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves interior aesthetics and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Jackson Middle High North Forney H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $262,999 Zillow
• 2025-08-13 Listed $242,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-15 Price Changed $242,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $264,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $261,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-27 Listed $259,999 Zillow