PINEHOLLOW Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$262,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 360 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 359 days

Tags

• TRANQUIL COUNTRY LIVING
• SHOPPING AND DINING OPTIONS
• RECREATION AT BELL PARK

🏗️ New construction. The $262,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,086.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $231,439 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,086
• List price: $262,999
• Delta: -9.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1919 Flaxen Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (0%)	3mo	$243,999	$147	88
1713 Guswood Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (0%)	2mo	$228,999	$138	84
1902 Flaxen Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-12%)	1mo	$229,499	$157	71
1305 Acton Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,902 (+15%)	0mo	$286,589	$151	70
1904 Flaxen Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-12%)	3mo	$220,999	$152	68
2078 Rosebury Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-1%)	2mo	$250,000	$152	61
1422 Fairfield Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (+2%)	2mo	$224,900	$132	60
1208 Haggetts Pond Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,902 (+15%)	3mo	$287,999	$151	56
1795 Gleasondale Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (-3%)	1mo	$304,890	$190	55
2122 Winsbury Way	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (+7%)	2mo	$285,000	$161	47
106 Zion Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,805 (+9%)	1mo	$309,990	$172	45
1810 Cabin Wood Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-12%)	2mo	$217,174	$150	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-58,272
• Equity at exit: $43,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-74,875
• Equity at exit: $25,254

Cash invested: $81,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 84 active · 57 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.1 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $305,499 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2639
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,532
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,381/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $275,723

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-12	+0% $-113	+5% $-214	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-304	-5% $-208	+0% $-113	+5% $-18	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-39	base $-113	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,022
• Closing costs: $8,763
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1527 Flannagan Pond Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,100	$1.44	4d	1	0.12mi
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,400	$1.41	28d	1	0.23mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	42d	1	0.27mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	93d	1	0.32mi
1622 Havenrock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,600	$1.20	16d	1	0.40mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	43d	1	0.41mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	52d	1	0.44mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	93d	1	0.44mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,150	$1.51	43d	1	0.44mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	66d	1	0.46mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	56d	1	0.46mi
1106 Arborwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2017	$2,895	$1.44	38d	1	0.48mi
1503 Gentle Night Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,650	$1.56	38d	1	0.50mi
1122 Arborwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1718	$2,200	$1.28	38d	1	0.51mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,500	$1.30	3d	1	0.51mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,075	$1.46	4d	1	0.51mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	93d	1	0.52mi
2215 Overton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,095	$0.95	30d	1	0.56mi
1422 Fairfield Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$2,000	$1.18	30d	1	0.61mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	93d	1	0.62mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	93d	1	0.64mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	73d	1	0.65mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	62d	1	0.67mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,071	$1.26	42d	1	0.70mi
2157 Winsbury Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,300	$1.18	21d	1	0.71mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	43d	1	0.73mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	35d	1	0.73mi
2011 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	17d	1	0.74mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,100	$1.19	1d	1	0.85mi
2121 Juniper Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,249	$1.16	43d	1	0.85mi
1507 Forge Pond Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	20d	1	0.86mi
10900 Reeder Ln Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1186	$2,900	$2.45	37d	1	0.86mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	93d	1	0.87mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	73d	1	0.87mi
1405 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,970	$4.24	0d	1	0.88mi
2411 Doncaster Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,100	$1.32	43d	1	0.88mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	73d	1	0.91mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,900	$1.23	3d	1	0.93mi
1459 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2034	$3,000	$1.47	38d	1	0.93mi
2031 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,779	$1.17	41d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $262,999 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $262,999 Active 358 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $262,999 Active 357 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $262,999 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $262,999 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $262,999 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $262,999 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $262,999 Active 350 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $262,999 Active 349 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $262,999 Active 347 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $262,999 Active 345 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,999 Active 344 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $262,999 Active 343 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $262,999 Active 342 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $262,999 Active 341 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,999 Active 339 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,999 Active 338 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $262,999 Active 337 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $262,999 Active 336 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $262,999 Active 335 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,999 Active 334 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,999 Active 333 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $262,999 Active 332 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $262,999 Active 331 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $262,999 Active 330 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $262,999 Active 328 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,999 Active 327 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,999 Active 326 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $262,999 Active 325 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $262,999 Active 324 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $262,999 Active 323 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $262,999 Active 322 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $262,999 Active 321 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $262,999 Active 320 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $262,999 Active 319 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $262,999 Active 318 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $262,999 Active 317 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $262,999 Active 315 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $262,999 Active 313 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $262,999 Active 312 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $262,999 Active 309 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $262,999 Active 308 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $262,999 Active 307 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $262,999 Active 306 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $262,999 Active 304 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $262,999 Active 303 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $262,999 Active 300 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,999 Active 299 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,999 Active 298 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $262,999 Active 295 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,361
• − Property taxes: −$4,381
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − Depreciation: −$8,497
• Taxable loss: −$6,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready. Value can be increased with minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves interior aesthetics and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Jackson Middle High North Forney H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $262,999 Zillow
• 2025-08-13 Listed $242,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-15 Price Changed $242,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $264,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $261,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-27 Listed $259,999 Zillow