Plan 2501 Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$252,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Downstairs primary suite * 5-panel interior doors * Game room * Kitchen island * Low-E windows * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned playground * Planned splash pad

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Kitchen island
• Game room

Tags

• GAME ROOM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• LOW-E WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $252,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $295,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-173 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1516 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,635 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,000
• List price: $252,995
• Delta: -14.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Dogwood	1.42mi	4/3.0	2,409 (-4%)	11mo	$335,000	$139	48
27318 Coach Light Ln	0.23mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,176 (-13%)	17mo	$209,999	$97	46
20231 Monday Hargrove Rd	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,346 (-6%)	15mo	$309,000	$132	45
31879 Casey Rd	1.23mi	4/2.0	2,722 (+9%)	6mo	$65,000	$24	43
26961 Lantern Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,909 (-24%)	10mo	$295,000	$155	32
3427 Silver Chalice Dr	1.22mi	4/2.0	1,995 (-20%)	8mo	$299,000	$150	32
139 Jett	1.39mi	4/3.0	2,914 (+17%)	10mo	$360,000	$124	30
26652 Saddle Rock Ln	0.92mi	4/2.0	2,112 (-16%)	14mo	$199,500	$94	26
20490 Lazy Creek Dr	0.76mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,888 (-24%)	6mo	$350,000	$185	26
20548 Mcgager Dr	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,164 (-13%)	35mo	$365,000	$169	25
19112 Kings Row	1.17mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,812 (+12%)	15mo	$279,900	$100	25
3402 Silver Chalice Dr	1.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,886 (-25%)	13mo	$299,000	$159	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-65,243
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-95,895
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $246,495 ($109/sqft)
• Median days on market: 214 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1516
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $269,947

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-71	+0% $-173	+5% $-275	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-266	+0% $-173	+5% $-80	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-98	base $-173	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $271,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (Plan 2501)Located at 20106 Sunlit Timber Trl, New Caney, TX
• Construction: Built as Plan 2501 (new construction)
• Exterior features: New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (Plan 2501)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $252,995 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $252,995 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $252,995 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   price $252,995 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $257,995 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $257,995 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $257,995 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $257,995 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $257,995 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $257,995 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $257,995 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $257,995 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $257,995 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $257,995 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $257,995 Active 200 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $257,995 Active 199 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $257,995 Active 198 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $257,995 Active 197 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $257,995 Active 196 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $257,995 Active 195 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $257,995 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $257,995 Active 193 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $257,995 Active 192 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $257,995 Active 191 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $257,995 Active 190 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $257,995 Active 189 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $257,995 Active 188 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $257,995 Active 187 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $257,995 Active 186 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $257,995 Active 185 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $257,995 Active 184 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $257,995 Active 183 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $257,995 Active 182 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $257,995 Active 181 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $257,995 Active 180 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $257,995 Active 179 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $257,995 Active 178 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $257,995 Active 177 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    pricedays on market $257,995 Active 176 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $262,995 Active 175 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $262,995 Active 174 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $262,995 Active 173 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $262,995 Active 172 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $262,995 Active 171 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $262,995 Active 170 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $262,995 Active 169 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $262,995 Active 168 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $262,995 Active 167 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $262,995 Active 166 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $262,995 Active 165 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,267
• − Management: −$2,267
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,729
• After-tax cash flow: $-349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,500–$37,500 screening

This single-family home in Roman Forest, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like smart home integration and smart security enhancing both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Upgraded appliances — Modern appliances enhance both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Smart home features improve both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Smart security system — Enhances safety and appeal to potential buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $271,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (Plan 2501)Located at 20106 Sunlit Timber Trl, New Caney, TX
• Construction: Built as Plan 2501 (new construction)
• Exterior features: New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (Plan 2501)