4009 Spring Branch Dr E · Pearland, TX 77584

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1991 8,298 sqft lot Est $300k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated one-story home nestled beneath mature oak trees with charming farmhouse-inspired curb appeal, featuring a welcoming front porch with wood beams & custom shutters. This functional floor plan offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, & spacious living areas designed for everyday comfort or entertaining. The family room showcases vaulted ceilings, hand-scraped wood flooring, a cozy gas-log fireplace, & abundant natural light. The island kitchen features granite countertops, solid oak cabinetry, a 5-burner gas range, Bosch dishwasher, & breakfast area with a wall of Low-E impact-resistant windows. The private primary suite offers backyard views & a beautifully r

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Large backyard
• Oversized garage

Tags

• UPDATED ONE-STORY HOME
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston Community Management HOA; Annual association fee of $150 covering common areas; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway; Garage door opener; Oversized garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1991; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence (back yard); Porch; Patio; Private yard; Greenbelt; Subdivision; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Pantry; Granite counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms possible
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating; Has cooling; Programmable thermostat; Fireplace (gas, gas log)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vanity; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pearland J H South (math 56% / reading 58%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 895 students, 52% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,416 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4110 Cleburne Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-5%)	1mo	$295,000	$195	77
4113 Cleburne Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-5%)	9mo	$319,000	$211	71
4002 Fernwood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+7%)	14mo	$320,000	$188	67
3911 Spring Circle Dr W	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+7%)	3mo	$335,000	$196	66
4109 Seminole Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-5%)	22mo	$299,900	$198	60
4101 Seminole Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,724 (+8%)	17mo	$305,000	$177	58
4511 Teal Glen St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+4%)	9mo	$282,500	$170	56
4522 Fox Run St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+4%)	11mo	$269,000	$162	54
4010 Spring Meadow Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+12%)	14mo	$289,900	$162	54
4520 Fox Run St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-8%)	6mo	$285,000	$193	52
3508 Yellowstone Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+6%)	11mo	$289,000	$170	48
3912 Ashwood Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+12%)	13mo	$300,000	$168	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-65,461
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-89,448
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77584

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,717/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,733

Max offer price $256,036

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4009 Spring Forest Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1976	$2,700	$1.37	1d	1	0.33mi
6207 Winter Oak St Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	1884	$2,340	$1.24	11d	1	1.23mi
3610 Kale St Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,140	$1.27	18d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 679-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $295,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,717 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,717 · $476/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$5,717
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 91,065
• Household income: $121,872
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 21% Black 21% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.09%
• Current HPI: 213.4011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12588.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-03 Rental Removed $2,325 HARMLS
• 2023-12-12 Listed for Rent $2,325 HARMLS
• 2016-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,717 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.