16964 Pine Trail Dr · Emerald Bay, TX 75762

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 259 Days on market

Built 2016 10,019 sqft lot $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Custom decks
• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 2016

Tags

• CUSTOM DECKS
• MULTIPLE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• PINE TRAIL SHORES COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,653 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.39%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,335
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,775
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75762

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $953/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,547

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20973 Lakeview Dr Flint, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	13d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,500 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 255 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,500 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $199,500 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 240 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 239 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $199,500

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

18. 2026-05-19
    price $199,500 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

19. 2026-03-04
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

20. 2026-03-04
    status Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

21. 2026-01-31
    historical 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

22. 2026-01-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

23. 2025-10-14
    price $205,000
24. 2025-10-13
    price $205,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

25. 2025-10-13
    price $205,000

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

26. 2025-09-25
    price $215,000

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

27. 2025-09-25
    price $215,000

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

28. 2025-09-25
    price $215,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

29. 2025-09-01
    listed $225,000 Active
30. 2025-09-01
    listed $225,000 Active
31. 2025-08-26
    listed $225,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Enjoy the lake lifestyle in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath perfected mobile home with custom decks and multiple storage buildings, generator hook-up, all located in the Pine Trail Shores community with shared access to Lake Palestine. This move-in ready property offers both comfort and convenience, whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, a permanent home, or an investment opportunity.

32. 2016-10-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,651 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,698/yr (+$225/mo · 283.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$953
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$1,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$355
• After-tax cash flow: $2,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,704
• Household income: $90,057
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.39%
• Current HPI: 197.2375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $199,500 GTAR
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-01-31 Delisted — GTAR
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $205,000 GTAR
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $215,000 GTAR
• 2025-09-01 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $225,000 GTAR
• 2016-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+48.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $953 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.