123 Piper Rd · East Herkimer, NY 13350

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 281 Days on market

Built 1940 0.28 ac lot $83/sqft · 44% below area Est $115k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This unique property is located on a quiet dead-end street in the heart of natural beauty of Central NY. The home requires TLC, and with your vision and creativity it can turn into a real paradise just minutes away from popular shopping locations and I-90 interstate. With its convenient room layout, this home is perfect for owner occupant, short term rental, or vacation get away. West Canada Creek is bordering with the back yard allowing easy water access and opportunity for fishing or kayaking.

Key facts

• Easy water access
• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• EASY WATER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $65k implies a 282% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.38%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,257
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -43.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
236 Perry St	0.63mi	2/1.0	898 (+14%)	5mo	$75,000	$84	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $48,868
• Equity at exit: $58,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.36×
• Total profit: $133,998
• Equity at exit: $126,281

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,609/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $226	+0% $208	+5% $189	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $105	-5% $156	+0% $208	+5% $259	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $224	base $208	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	44d	1	0.66mi
124 W Smith St Herkimer, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	44d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 261 DOM
16. 2025-09-17
    status Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    This unique property is located on a quiet dead-end street in the heart of natural beauty of Central NY. The home requires TLC, and with your vision and creativity it can turn into a real paradise just minutes away from popular shopping locations and I-90 interstate. With its convenient room layout, this home is perfect for owner occupant, short term rental, or vacation get away. West Canada Creek is bordering with the back yard allowing easy water access and opportunity for fishing or kayaking.

17. 2025-09-17
    historical Active Under Contract 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    This unique property is located on a quiet dead-end street in the heart of natural beauty of Central NY. The home requires TLC, and with your vision and creativity it can turn into a real paradise just minutes away from popular shopping locations and I-90 interstate. With its convenient room layout, this home is perfect for owner occupant, short term rental, or vacation get away. West Canada Creek is bordering with the back yard allowing easy water access and opportunity for fishing or kayaking.

18. 2025-09-12
    listed $65,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    This unique property is located on a quiet dead-end street in the heart of natural beauty of Central NY. The home requires TLC, and with your vision and creativity it can turn into a real paradise just minutes away from popular shopping locations and I-90 interstate. With its convenient room layout, this home is perfect for owner occupant, short term rental, or vacation get away. West Canada Creek is bordering with the back yard allowing easy water access and opportunity for fishing or kayaking.

19. 2025-09-06
    historical
20. 2025-09-05
    historical
21. 2025-09-05
    historical
22. 2025-06-04
    listed $64,999 Active
23. 2025-04-02
    listed $64,999 Active
24. 2023-05-31
    soldstatus $17,000 Closed Sale or Rented
25. 2023-04-21
    status Pending Sale
26. 2023-04-17
    price $24,900
27. 2023-03-31
    price $27,500
28. 2023-03-31
    status Active
29. 2023-03-22
    status Pending Sale
30. 2023-03-13
    price $29,900
31. 2023-03-03
    price $32,500
32. 2023-02-23
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,609 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,609 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,609
• − Insurance: −$4,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $1,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$438
• After-tax cash flow: $2,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Herkimer

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+85.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-17 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-09-17 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $65,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $64,999 UNYREIS
• 2025-04-02 Listed $64,999 Global MLS
• 2023-05-31 Sold (MLS) $17,000 CNYIS
• 2023-04-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-04-17 Price Changed $24,900 CNYIS
• 2023-03-31 Price Changed $27,500 CNYIS
• 2023-03-31 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2023-03-22 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-03-13 Price Changed $29,900 CNYIS
• 2023-03-03 Price Changed $32,500 CNYIS
• 2023-02-23 Listed $35,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,609 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.