427 Clay St · Chillicothe, MO 64601

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1942 5,662 sqft lot Est $129k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good investment property located close to downtown area. Hardwood floors, newer roof, off street parking, back porch with storage.

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Full basement
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL HEAT AND A/C
• NICE SIZED BEDROOM CLOSETS
• FULL BASEMENT
• LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• ENCLOSED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Ranch floor plan
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Has basement; Estimated age: 76–100 years
• Exterior features: Located inside city limits; City limits lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Free-standing electric oven; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Wood windows; Enclosed porch; Eat-in kitchen; Wood flooring; Concrete, unfinished basement; Wood-burning fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement; Utility room in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.8% in Chillicothe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#225 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Chillicothe R-II (town): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #60 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.69%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,576
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
453 Elm St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,628 (+4%)	3mo	$36,900	$23	83
330 Webster St. St	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,520 (-3%)	14mo	$125,000	$82	69
94 11th St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,608 (+3%)	1mo	$115,000	$72	62
325 John F Kennedy Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,492 (-5%)	20mo	$150,000	$101	52
209 Walnut St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,348 (-14%)	14mo	$100,000	$74	42
40 10th St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,787 (+14%)	2mo	$205,000	$115	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $6,850
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $31,389
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64601

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $618

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   status $79,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   status $79,900 Pending 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-21
   listed $79,900 Active
10. 2019-02-21
    soldstatus
11. 2014-07-03
    soldstatus
12. 2014-07-02
    soldstatus 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Good investment property located close to downtown area. Hardwood floors, newer roof, off street parking, back porch with storage.

13. 2014-05-23
    listed $29,000 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Good investment property located close to downtown area. Hardwood floors, newer roof, off street parking, back porch with storage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$345/yr (+$29/mo · 80.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$971
• − Management: −$971
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$617
• After-tax cash flow: $3,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chillicothe R-II
• NCES district ID: 2908760
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,193
• Composite: 40.81/100
• National rank: #3637
• State rank: #60 of 324 in MO

Livability — Chillicothe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #10947

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chillicothe, MO
• Population (ZIP): 12,110

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,945 people
• By 2030: 14,945 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 15,010 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 15,105 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 15,950 · +6.7%
• By 2100: 15,897 · +6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+56.4 2012: R+34.7 2008: R+23.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.00%
• Current HPI: 177.3092
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+175.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $79,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-02 Sold (MLS) — NECAR
• 2014-05-23 Listed $29,000 NECAR

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $430 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.