169 Paradise Ln · Auburndale, FL 33823

$135,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1976 3,999 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for beautiful lake views? Located in Ariana Shores, an active 55+ community, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers breathtaking lake views and a relaxed Florida lifestyle in a warm, friendly, and welcoming neighborhood where neighbors quickly become friends. The community boat ramp and dock are just steps from the front door, making it easy to enjoy days out on the water or peaceful evenings by the lake. The spacious living room flows into a bright Florida Room, where walls of windows invite you to unwind and take in the serene beauty of the lake. Whether you're enjoying your morning coffee, reading a book, or watching the sunset, this peaceful space is the perfect spot to rel

Key facts

• Dock
• Lake views
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• FLORIDA ROOM
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• HEATED POOL
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is partially furnished; Total annual association fees reported; Property located on Lake Arietta (no direct water access or view indicated)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $68.75; quarterly fee $206.25); Association amenities include clubhouse, laundry, shuffleboard court, and pool; Association approval required; Buyer approval required for community; Senior community; Pets allowed (max 20 lbs); Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; Northeast facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $937 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,370 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.53%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $9,699
• Equity at exit: $20,203

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $50,291
• Equity at exit: $11,716

Cash invested: $37,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,848 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$711
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,608/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,227

Max offer price $135,500

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $568	-5% $529	+0% $491	+5% $453	+10% $414
Rent	-10% $345	-5% $418	+0% $491	+5% $564	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $559	-0.5pp $525	base $491	+0.5pp $456	+1.0pp $420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,875
• Closing costs: $4,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Madalyn Ct Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,950	$1.32	15d	1	1.08mi
217 Meadow Vue Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,785	$1.31	24d	1	1.24mi
103 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,810	$1.43	4d	1	1.29mi
161 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,895	$1.57	24d	1	1.32mi
132 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,805	$1.46	4d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,500 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,500 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,500 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,500 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,500 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,500 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,500 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,500 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,500 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,500 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,500 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,500 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,500 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,500 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $135,500
16. 2026-04-26
    price $139,900
17. 2026-04-03
    listed $142,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,608 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,608 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,590
• − Property taxes: −$1,608
• − Insurance: −$678
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$3,942
• Taxable income: $3,996
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$959
• After-tax cash flow: $4,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $135,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $142,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+22.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,608 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.