428 Robin St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1925 8,000 sqft lot Est $123k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 428 Robin Street in Dunkirk! Just minutes from the shores of Lake Erie, this spacious two-story home offers over 2,000 square feet of living space ready for your vision and personal touches. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a detached 2-car garage, and a fully fenced yard, this property provides the foundation for a rewarding renovation project. Whether you're an investor seeking your next opportunity or a homeowner looking to build equity, the generous room sizes and classic 1925 character create endless possibilities. Enjoy the benefits of living near Lake Erie, local parks, beaches, marinas, and downtown amenities. Bring your creativity and tools, properties

Key facts

• Fully fenced yard
• 8,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• CLASSIC 1925 CHARACTER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property; Asphalt roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Stone foundation; Built (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular residential lot; Road frontage on city street and main thoroughfare; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 100

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms present (total rooms include living and laundry areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Combined living and dining area; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,240
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 Robin St	0.05mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,132 (+4%)	3mo	$128,000	$60	82
88 W 4th St	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,852 (-10%)	2mo	$125,000	$67	74
15 E Fifth St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,046 (-0%)	3mo	$170,000	$83	71
48 W 5th St	0.13mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,117 (+3%)	16mo	$25,000	$12	69
501 Mckinley Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (-6%)	7mo	$175,000	$91	61
520 Central Ave	0.34mi	3/2.5	2,092 (+2%)	24mo	$189,999	$91	55
14 W Lucas Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,896 (-8%)	3mo	$95,000	$50	51
31 W Lucas Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,812 (-12%)	2mo	$95,000	$52	51
731 Washington Ave	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,122 (+3%)	19mo	$105,000	$49	47
47 Ruggles St	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,149 (+5%)	15mo	$6,000	$3	42
44 Point Dr N	0.69mi	3/1.5	2,336 (+14%)	18mo	$264,000	$113	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $32,695
• Equity at exit: $59,061

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $91,553
• Equity at exit: $101,569

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,620/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,029

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,620 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,620 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,620
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $59
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14
• After-tax cash flow: $1,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $105,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,620 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.