4901 Colonial Cir · Campbell, NY 14821

$37,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 2001 Fair condition $33/sqft · 43% above area Est $26k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Affordable and move-in ready! This 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers a spacious 28x40 layout. Enjoy the comfortable living space and well sized bedrooms. Generously sized kitchen with functional layout, featuring abundant cabinetry and counter space. Laundry hook-ups off kitchen. Conveniently located with easy access to major highways and nearby amenities. a great opportunity for those looking to downsize. This is a titled manufactured home located on a leased lot. Park approval is required. Lot rent applies. Rent for lot is $575 which includes water, sewer and garbage. Located in a 55+ adult community. Manufactured Home Financing Available. Showing by appt only.

Key facts

• Built 2001
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has land lease ($575)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single-story double-wide mobile home; Pinegrove model; Existing (resale) condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block and pier/pillar foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas and propane heating sources
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $557 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#917 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Campbell-Savona Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #334 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($259 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $36,375 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.68%
• DSCR: 3.83
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $26,200
• List price: $37,500
• Delta: 43.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4951 Colonial Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-6%)	2mo	$32,500	$31	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $46,483
• Equity at exit: $23,736

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.5%
• Equity multiple: 11.37×
• Total profit: $108,930
• Equity at exit: $43,184

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14821

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $328

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $570	+0% $557	+5% $544	+10% $531
Rent	-10% $476	-5% $516	+0% $557	+5% $598	+10% $639
Rate	-1.0pp $576	-0.5pp $567	base $557	+0.5pp $547	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $37,500 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $37,500 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $37,500 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $37,500 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $37,500 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $37,500 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $37,500 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,500 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $37,500 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $37,500 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $37,500 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $37,500 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,500 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $37,500 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $37,500 Active 680-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$992
• − Management: −$992
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $6,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,554
• After-tax cash flow: $5,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is move-in ready with average condition. It offers a spacious layout and is located in a 55+ community. Simple updates like painting and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint shows some wear and tear.
• Minor Landscaping — Simple landscaping could be improved for curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Landscaping upgrade — Aesthetic improvements can attract more buyers/renters.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint shows some wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Simple landscaping could be improved for curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping upgrade — Aesthetic improvements can attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell-Savona Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600020
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,653
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2667
• State rank: #334 of 590 in NY

Livability — Campbell

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #917
• US rank: #17948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Campbell, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,015

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Current HPI: 224.5452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $37,500 UNYREIS