2819 Sellars Rd · Appling, GA 30802

$475,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,225 sqft · Other public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1995 1.77 ac lot $147/sqft · 23% below area Est $614k · 23% under ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FLAT LAND, IN GROUND POOL, NO HOA, COLUMBIA COUNTY LOCATION, UPDATED KITCHEN, NEW ROOF, ALMOST 2 ACRES. .. . Great opportunity in Appling GA. All bedrooms include an attached bathroom, have large walk in closets, LAUNDRY ROOM is super nice and includes a laundry chute from upstairs. BRAND new kitchen - WELL equipped with tons of custom storage - open to Great Room with gorgeous views of the back yard. Home has an oversized garage, wonderful covered outdoor entertainment gazebo area (16x14), BACK PATIO (24x15), detached shed, large interior rooms and just needs a few final touches to finish it up.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Updated kitchen
• In ground pool

Tags

• IN GROUND POOL
• COLUMBIA COUNTY LOCATION
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R
• HOA & community: Association amenities: other

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces total; Attached 2-car garage; Gravel parking pad
• Utilities: Public water and well; Septic tank; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels (2 stories); Entry level: 1; Facing: see remarks
• Construction: Built with block, frame and vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch with front porch; Gazebo; Outbuilding; Chain link and partial fencing; In-ground pool; Has view; Lot features: see remarks/other

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Heat pump; Fireplace(s); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Accessible full bathroom; Window coverings; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (57.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (60.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (60.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 1.1% in Appling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#457 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Columbia Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #79 of 1,228 statewide, top 7%, 459 students, 22% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 981 students, 39% FRL); Harlem High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,223 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,985 (60.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.82%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 20.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $614,069
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -22.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $161,035
• Equity at exit: $427,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $550,661
• Equity at exit: $922,821

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30802

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 20.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,026/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-1,531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,828

Max offer price $204,480

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $475,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $475,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $499,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $499,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $499,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $499,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $499,000 603-char remark
18. 2026-05-11
    historical
19. 2026-05-02
    listed $549,900 Active 603-char remark
20. 2026-05-02
    listed $565,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,026 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,370 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$344/yr (+$29/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$4,026
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$27,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,666
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia County
• NCES district ID: 1301410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,358
• Composite: 45.04/100
• National rank: #2695
• State rank: #13 of 174 in GA

Livability — Appling

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #21719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Appling, GA
• Population (ZIP): 6,375

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,073 people
• By 2030: 212,277 · +12.3%
• By 2040: 259,480 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 306,991 · +62.4%
• By 2075: 421,213 · +122.8%
• By 2100: 496,722 · +162.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 17% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.6) · D 36.8% · R 62.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.0pp toward D · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -25.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.67%
• Current HPI: 339.0061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $475,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-06-05 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-31 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $499,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $565,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $549,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,026 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.