50 S 1500 W Unit S27 · Vernal, UT 84078

$33,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 84 Days on market

Built 1978 ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lot rent is $535.00 per month. Includes water sewer and garbage. Buyer must be approved for lot rent prior to closing.

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#60 in UT, #3,813 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, amenities A; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, employment F.
• Uintah District (town): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #60 of 80 in UT (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ashley School (math 32% / reading 18%, grade F, #472 of 585 statewide, top 81%, 517 students, 58% FRL); Uintah Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #75 of 138 statewide, top 56%, 669 students, 40% FRL); Uintah High (math 18% / reading 36%, grade F, #131 of 171 statewide, top 79%, 1,808 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 85 units permitted in Uintah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $234 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Uintah County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,866 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.16%
• DSCR: 5.55
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $47,432
• Equity at exit: $5,055

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.98×
• Total profit: $113,680
• Equity at exit: $2,931

Cash invested: $9,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Utah: 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 84078

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $297

Max offer price $33,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $832	-5% $820	+0% $808	+5% $796	+10% $785
Rent	-10% $704	-5% $756	+0% $808	+5% $860	+10% $912
Rate	-1.0pp $825	-0.5pp $817	base $808	+0.5pp $799	+1.0pp $790

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,475
• Closing costs: $1,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-07
   price $33,900
3. 2026-03-09
   price $34,900
4. 2026-03-06
   price $34,999
5. 2026-03-06
   price $34,900
6. 2026-01-23
   listed $40,000 Active
7. 2025-06-25
   historical
8. 2025-06-13
   listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,899
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$986
• Taxable income: $9,737
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,337
• After-tax cash flow: $7,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Uintah District
• NCES district ID: 4901080
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,125
• Composite: 30.69/100
• National rank: #6177
• State rank: #60 of 80 in UT

Livability — Vernal

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #3813

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernal, UT
• County: Uintah County · 30,975 people
• City population: 30,975
• Metro: Vernal, UT
• Population (ZIP): 30,975
• Household income: $75,113
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 223.0

Population outlook (Uintah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,582 people
• By 2030: 56,006 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 70,034 · +41.2%
• By 2050: 85,323 · +72.1%
• By 2075: 124,396 · +150.9%
• By 2100: 154,630 · +211.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Uintah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.6) · D 12.3% · R 85.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -68.8pp · 2024: -73.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.6 2020: R+75.8 2016: R+68.9 2012: R+81.3 2008: R+68.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -304.65%
• Current HPI: 197.5429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.07%
• Metro: Vernal, UT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in UT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$3B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — WFRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $33,900 WFRMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $34,900 WFRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $34,999 WFRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $34,900 WFRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $40,000 WFRMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — WFRMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $40,000 WFRMLS