841 W Lemon St · Lakeland, FL 33815

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1913 7,906 sqft lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. SELLER FINANCING AVAILABLE Investor special in the heart of Lakeland. Welcome to 841 W Lemon St, a 3-bedroom, 2-bath property zoned for both commercial and residential use, offering unlimited potential for the right buyer. With some TLC, this property could be absolutely stunning. Located directly across the street from Lake Beulah and Veterans Memorial Park, you’ll enjoy peaceful views with no front neighbors ever. The RP Funding Center is just steps away, and you are less than five minutes from downtown Lakeland with its amazing shopping, dining, and entertainment. Whether you’re restoring it into a beautiful home, creating income-prod

Key facts

• 7,906 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1913

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned I-1
• HOA & community: No association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two stories; South-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a lot of about 0.18 acres
• Exterior features: Front porch; Private mailbox; Oak trees on the property; Asphalt/paved road frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 8.5 x 41

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($914/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Scott Lake Elementary School (math 67% / reading 56%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 727 students, 36% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,933/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $119,067
• Equity at exit: $178,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $361,479
• Equity at exit: $384,670

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,958/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $132	+0% $76	+5% $20	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $0	+0% $76	+5% $153	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $127	base $76	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1238 Herschell St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1323	$1,300	$0.98	25d	1	0.60mi
1335 W Walnut St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1626	$1,800	$1.11	4d	1	0.62mi
1246 Dorothy St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,300	$1.55	25d	1	0.78mi
270 E Bay St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,725	$1.93	4d	6	0.78mi
513 Emma St Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	1899	$2,135	$1.12	20d	1	0.85mi
600 E Bay St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$2,417	$2.64	4d	29	0.97mi
738 N Lorri Ave Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	16d	1	1.00mi
312 W Park St Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	25d	1	1.04mi
1806 Dorothy St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2046	$1,695	$0.83	4d	1	1.20mi
1128 Neville Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,900	$1.53	16d	1	1.28mi
1 Lake Hollingsworth Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,095	$1.40	4d	2	1.32mi
1127 N Vermont Ave Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,200	$1.47	16d	1	1.42mi
446 Francis Blvd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1499	$1,150	$0.77	4d	1	1.45mi
1134 Gilmore Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2275	$1,700	$0.75	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $198,000
3. 2026-02-07
   price $229,000
4. 2026-02-07
   status Active
5. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-02
   price $248,400
7. 2025-11-10
   price $247,900
8. 2025-09-19
   listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,958 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,958 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$3,958
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$2,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$556
• After-tax cash flow: $1,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $248,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $247,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,958 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.