32696 Cougar Pass Ct · French Valley, CA 92596

$939,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,909 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2018 10,454 sqft lot Est $876k · 7% over $50/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A charming courtyard at the entry connects the outdoors to the modern interior of the single-story floor plan. The kitchen features a stainless steel appliance package, oversized culinary island with seating, granite countertops, walk-in pantry and abundant maple cabinetry. A large Great Room serves as the central gathering space and easily connects to the formal dining room and casual dining area. The master bedroom suite offers a spa-quality bath with soaking tub, separate enclosed shower and spacious walk-in closets.

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Spa
• Premium lot

Tags

• VIEW LOT
• POOL
• SPA
• RV PARKING
• PREMIUM LOT
• PRIVATE FRONT COURTYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Exclusions: garage refrigerator and separate freezer
• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of an association (Walters management); Monthly association fee of $50; Association amenities include playground, barbecue/outdoor cooking area and picnic area; Community features include curbs, biking and a park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage; RV access/parking; 3 total parking spaces
• Utilities: 220V in garage; Electricity on property; Public sewer; District/public water; Cable available
• Home design: Attached property in a planned development; Single-story home; Main floor entry
• Construction: Concrete slab foundation
• Exterior features: House; Covered concrete patio; In-ground private heated pool with pebble finish, waterfall and tile; Patio home; Landscaped; Has view; Vinyl, brick wall and wrought iron fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Microwave; Built-in range; Gas range; Double oven; Ice maker; Tankless water heater; Remodeled kitchen; Formal dining area and eating area in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Primary suite; Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedrooms (4 on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Double sinks in master bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central air conditioning; Whole house fan
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Block walls; Built-ins; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Kitchen open to family room; Pots & pan drawers; Kitchen island; Soaking tub; Walk-in shower; Double sinks in bath(s); Bathtub; Shower; Has fireplace (gas, in living room); Whole house fan; Central cooling; Central furnace; One level (main floor entry)
• Laundry & utility: Has laundry; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $939k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $691k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $596k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $596k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in French Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,965/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($133k/yr) (locally 591% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $100k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $94k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$161k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $491k; list at $939k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $596,471 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $875,609
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32743 Cherokee Rose	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,909 (0%)	0mo	$910,000	$313	89
35421 Birchbrook	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,909 (0%)	3mo	$939,000	$323	83
32507 Shadyview St	0.43mi	4/2.5	3,073 (+6%)	2mo	$924,900	$301	68
32502 Cherokee Rose St	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,560 (-12%)	0mo	$815,000	$318	63
32101 Daisy Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,740 (-6%)	1mo	$715,000	$261	61
32143 Daisy Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,740 (-6%)	2mo	$825,000	$301	60
33041 Cuvee Ct	0.35mi	4/4.0	2,641 (-9%)	3mo	$826,000	$313	60
32585 Presidio Hls	0.43mi	4/3.0	3,213 (+10%)	3mo	$800,000	$249	58
32684 Salvia Cir	0.61mi	4/2.5	3,157 (+8%)	0mo	$750,000	$238	57
32224 Geranium St	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,596 (-11%)	0mo	$700,000	$270	56
32526 Presidio Hls	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,213 (+10%)	2mo	$785,000	$244	51
32185 Bandelier	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,712 (-7%)	3mo	$722,000	$266	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $404,345
• Equity at exit: $845,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $1,229,488
• Equity at exit: $1,824,270

Cash invested: $262,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,924
• Tax from tax record: −$751 /mo · $9,011/yr
• Insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,253
• Net cashflow: $-1,404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,742

Max offer price $690,926

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-873	-5% $-1,139	+0% $-1,404	+5% $-1,670	+10% $-1,936
Rent	-10% $-1,876	-5% $-1,640	+0% $-1,404	+5% $-1,169	+10% $-933
Rate	-1.0pp $-931	-0.5pp $-1,165	base $-1,404	+0.5pp $-1,648	+1.0pp $-1,895

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $234,750
• Closing costs: $28,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32640 Cougar Pass Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	3800	$8,600	$2.26	45d	1	0.09mi
32689 Cottonwood Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	3157	$4,100	$1.30	45d	1	0.53mi
34629 Foxberry Rd Winchester, CA	5.0	5.5	3887	$4,179	$1.08	4d	1	0.65mi
34580 Sourwood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	45d	1	0.76mi
36395 Pistachio Dr Winchester, CA	5.0	4.0	4020	$4,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.12mi
32907 Cambury Pl Winchester, CA	5.0	4.0	2641	$3,795	$1.44	0d	1	1.14mi
35350 Marabella Ct Unit 35350 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,300	$1.71	0d	1	1.20mi
36264 Capri Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1999	$3,300	$1.65	20d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $939,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $939,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $939,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $939,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $939,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $939,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $939,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,011 · $751/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,011 · $751/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$52,599
• − Property taxes: −$9,011
• − Insurance: −$4,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,726
• − Management: −$5,726
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$27,316
• Taxable loss: −$34,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,183
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+93.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $939,000 CRMLS
• 2018-02-02 Sold (MLS) $490,742 CRMLS
• 2017-12-26 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-12-18 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2017-11-27 Price Changed $495,742 CRMLS
• 2017-11-13 Listed $484,270 CRMLS

Property tax history

+28.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,011 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.