1305 Harding Street St · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$219,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1950 6,704 sqft lot Est $207k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained and updated 3/2 in Fort Hill. New water/sewer lines from meter, low maintenance siding, new fence out back, easy to clean laminate flooring, newer roof, etc. Hard to find homes in this price range in this market!

Key facts

• Well kept interiors
• Solar panels
• 6,704 sq ft lot

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE SIDING
• SOLAR PANELS
• STRONG RENTAL HISTORY
• WELL KEPT INTERIORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating); Has heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Electric Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Electric water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheffield Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 445 students, 91% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,494 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1314 Harding St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,135 (-3%)	7mo	$191,000	$168	87
1305 Radcliff Ave. Ave	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,223 (+5%)	3mo	$216,000	$177	81
1101 Toledo Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,143 (-2%)	4mo	$150,000	$131	71
1306 Saint Cloud Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+7%)	8mo	$220,000	$177	70
707 Crestwood Cir	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,197 (+2%)	4mo	$215,000	$180	70
1308 Mckinney Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,274 (+9%)	2mo	$219,900	$173	69
319 Oakridge Blvd	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,162 (-0%)	2mo	$165,800	$143	66
1116 Toledo Ave	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,260 (+8%)	2mo	$205,000	$163	64
5027 Oxford St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-14%)	0mo	$220,000	$220	55
717 Crestwood Cir	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,030 (-12%)	6mo	$220,000	$214	51
4708 Myrtle St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,012 (-13%)	3mo	$167,585	$166	50
813 Westview Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,262 (+8%)	3mo	$241,000	$191	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-46,284
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,690
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,542/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $181,739

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-92	-5% $-154	+0% $-216	+5% $-278	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-274	+0% $-216	+5% $-158	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-160	base $-216	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 Saint Cloud Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	45d	1	0.18mi
4300 Tremont St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,200	$1.07	44d	1	0.29mi
4067 Fort Ave Unit 3 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$995	$1.05	21d	1	0.30mi
1009 Lindsay St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	44d	1	0.60mi
4607 Fairmont Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1001	$1,650	$1.65	21d	1	0.66mi
5621 Killarney Pl Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1180	$1,575	$1.33	13d	1	0.94mi
803 Mansfield Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	21d	1	0.96mi
106 Yeardley Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1060	$895	$0.84	21d	1	0.99mi
4612 Greenwood Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1257	$1,595	$1.27	21d	1	1.00mi
1218 Shirley Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	742	$950	$1.28	21d	1	1.11mi
4647 Ferncliff Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,800	$1.74	44d	1	1.15mi
5900 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	21d	1	1.18mi
5900 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1221	$1,595	$1.31	44d	1	1.18mi
216 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1114	$995	$0.89	44d	1	1.26mi
2920 Richmond St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1472	$1,695	$1.15	21d	1	1.27mi
1625 Shaffer St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	44d	1	1.30mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	44d	1	1.30mi
905 Centerdale St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	13d	1	1.35mi
2336 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1042	$995	$0.95	13d	1	1.44mi
2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	44d	1	1.47mi
540 Monticello Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	21d	1	1.47mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	44d	1	1.49mi
318 Wadsworth St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	943	$995	$1.06	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $219,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $219,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $219,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-05-22
   listed $219,900 Active
5. 2021-06-10
   soldstatus $165,500 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Well maintained and updated 3/2 in Fort Hill. New water/sewer lines from meter, low maintenance siding, new fence out back, easy to clean laminate flooring, newer roof, etc. Hard to find homes in this price range in this market!

6. 2021-04-16
   listed $154,900 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Well maintained and updated 3/2 in Fort Hill. New water/sewer lines from meter, low maintenance siding, new fence out back, easy to clean laminate flooring, newer roof, etc. Hard to find homes in this price range in this market!

7. 2012-12-28
   soldstatus $115,000
8. 2006-05-02
   soldstatus $84,900
9. 1996-05-02
   soldstatus $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,542 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$261/yr (+$22/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,542
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$6,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+340.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $219,900 LMLS
• 2021-06-10 Sold (MLS) $165,500 LMLS
• 2021-04-16 Listed $154,900 LMLS
• 2012-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $84,900 Public Records
• 1996-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,542 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.