4802 W 51st · Bradenton, FL 34210

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2006 Fair condition Est $260k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Bradenton Florida right next to beautiful AMI beach and only minutes from IMG Academy. Gated Community with a pool and small gym. Condo features vaulted and tray ceilings, spacious bedrooms and walk in closets to both rooms. Open concept living room, dining room and kitchen. Lots of natural light and overlooks the tree tops with a large balcony area.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pool
• Small gym

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• POOL
• SMALL GYM
• LARGE BALCONY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($151/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sea Breeze Elementary School (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 74% FRL); W. D. Sugg Middle School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #462 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,010 students, 72% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.1%/yr); 556 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $220k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,050 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,904
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4528 58th St W	0.33mi	2/2.0	994 (-5%)	11mo	$310,000	$312	67
4015 52nd Street Ct W	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,097 (+5%)	0mo	$255,000	$232	61
5303 40th Ave W	0.60mi	2/2.0	927 (-12%)	9mo	$230,000	$248	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,503
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-56,092
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34210

• Rents YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $89	+0% $13	+5% $-63	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-64	+0% $13	+5% $89	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $69	base $13	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4802 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,950	$1.94	18d	15	0.13mi
4802 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,950	$1.94	5d	13	0.13mi
4850 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	5d	2	0.20mi
4850 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	16d	3	0.20mi
4880 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1019	$1,527	$1.50	5d	11	0.25mi
4550 47th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,800	$1.94	3d	27	0.33mi
4801 47th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,810	$1.78	4d	32	0.35mi
4655 46th Street Ct W #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1141	$600	$0.53	5d	1	0.48mi
4572 Red Maple Rd #901 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,600	$1.31	25d	1	0.50mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 406 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	4d	1	0.54mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 406 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.54mi
4449 46th Ave W Unit 4449 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1110	$3,200	$2.88	25d	1	0.54mi
4112 Cape Vista Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,495	$2.41	25d	1	0.55mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 501A Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	840	$2,595	$3.09	25d	1	0.56mi
4210 Ironwood Cir Unit 103J Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,800	$2.40	25d	1	0.57mi
4457 45th Ave W #211 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,950	$2.14	18d	1	0.59mi
4110 Ironwood Cir #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	25d	1	0.63mi
4240 Ironwood Cir #404 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,495	$2.48	25d	1	0.63mi
4118 59th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	756	$1,800	$2.38	18d	1	0.65mi
4601 66th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$2,065	$2.25	4d	24	0.67mi
4040 Ironwood Cir Unit 404F Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	13d	1	0.69mi
4040 Ironwood Cir Unit 406F Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,675	$1.66	18d	1	0.69mi
4570 Pinebrook Cir #304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1256	$3,100	$2.47	25d	1	0.70mi
283 Sherwood Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.70mi
346 Springdale Dr Unit 346 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	0.70mi
303 Springdale Dr #303 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,999	$1.53	5d	1	0.77mi
4116 62nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,650	$1.96	5d	1	0.78mi
586 Lakeside Dr Unit 586 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$3,200	$3.40	25d	1	0.79mi
4460 Fairways Blvd #606 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,000	$1.59	18d	1	0.80mi
452 Palm Tree Dr Unit 452 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,595	$1.22	5d	1	0.83mi
4112 66th Street Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,960	$1.78	21d	1	0.86mi
4161 66th Street Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,800	$1.72	18d	1	0.86mi
4209 66th Street Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,900	$2.78	25d	1	0.86mi
5907 36th Ave Cir W #5907 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$2,800	$2.99	25d	1	0.86mi
655 Woodlawn Dr Unit 655 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,600	$1.39	25d	1	0.88mi
4325 40th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,675	$2.16	12d	9	0.94mi
108 Pinehurst Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,500	$1.78	25d	1	0.95mi
4107 41st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$3,700	$2.61	25d	1	0.95mi
6711 45th Ave W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	18d	1	0.97mi
3909 45th Ter W #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,800	$1.26	18d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-16
    listed $220,000 Active
13. 2026-05-02
    price $1,400
14. 2026-04-19
    price $1,495
15. 2026-04-07
    listed $1,595
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $1,595
17. 2026-03-27
    historical $1,650
18. 2026-03-25
    historical $1,650
19. 2026-03-14
    listed $1,650
20. 2026-03-06
    listed $1,250
21. 2026-01-08
    historical $1,995
22. 2026-01-06
    listed $1,995
23. 2025-07-06
    historical $1,695
24. 2025-07-04
    listed $1,695
25. 2025-06-23
    historical $1,795
26. 2025-06-23
    listed $1,795
27. 2025-04-11
    historical $1,895
28. 2025-04-10
    listed $1,895
29. 2025-04-10
    historical $1,725
30. 2025-04-08
    price $1,725
31. 2025-03-30
    price $1,750
32. 2025-03-26
    price $1,775
33. 2025-03-19
    listed $1,800
34. 2008-08-20
    historical
35. 2008-04-29
    listed $104,900
36. 2006-03-06
    listed $224,900
37. 2005-10-03
    soldstatus $139,500
38. 2005-10-03
    listed $139,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$855
• After-tax cash flow: $1,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate renovations, focusing on exterior siding and interior walls, to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant weathering and possible damage.
• Minor interior walls — Slight wear on the paint, but not severe enough to require immediate attention.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale repair and paint exterior siding — Aesthetic improvements can significantly enhance curb appeal.
• Resale repair and paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern.
• Both replace HVAC system — An updated HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhancing the landscaping can boost both resale and rental value by making the property more attractive.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant weathering and possible damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Slight wear on the paint, but not severe enough to require immediate attention.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale repair and paint exterior siding — Aesthetic improvements can significantly enhance curb appeal. ↑
• Resale repair and paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern. ↑
• Both replace HVAC system — An updated HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhancing the landscaping can boost both resale and rental value by making the property more attractive. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,682
• Household income: $64,244
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 895.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.68%
• Current HPI: 246.9247
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.08%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+57.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $220,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $1,400 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $1,495 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-07 Listed for Rent $1,595 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-06 Listed for Rent $1,595 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-27 Rental Removed $1,650 Avail
• 2026-03-25 Rental Removed $1,650 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,650 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-06 Listed for Rent $1,250 Avail
• 2026-01-08 Rental Removed $1,995 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-06 Listed for Rent $1,995 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-06 Rental Removed $1,695 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-04 Listed for Rent $1,695 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-23 Rental Removed $1,795 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-23 Listed for Rent $1,795 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-11 Rental Removed $1,895 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,895 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-10 Rental Removed $1,725 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $1,725 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-03-30 Price Changed $1,750 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $1,775 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-03-19 Listed for Rent $1,800 RENTALBEAST
• 2008-08-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-29 Listed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-06 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-03 Listed $139,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-03 Sold (MLS) $139,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid