11160 Chestnut Run Ct · Whitmore Lake, MI 48178

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Built 2004 4,356 sqft lot $57/sqft · at area comps Est $92k · at est. ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated home in the sought-after Woodland Ridge Manufactured Home Community in South Lyon! This peaceful, pet-friendly neighborhood offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening on the charming covered front porch. Inside, an open-concept layout filled with natural light showcases tasteful updates throughout. The spacious living and dining areas feature durable plank flooring, while the refreshed kitchen boasts contemporary finishes, brand-new cabinetry, newer appliances, and plenty of space for cooking and gathering. Additional highlights include new siding, new carpeting, tile flooring in the bathrooms, and ceiling fans in every room for enhanced comfort and energy efficiency. Laundry items are also included for your convenience. Residents of Woodland Ridge enjoy fantastic community amenities - take advantage of the pool, playscape, basketball court, gym, and clubhouse. With a lot rent of $895 per month (no surprises!) and a move-in-ready home that combines style and function, this is low-maintenance living at its best. Immediate Occupancy – move right in and start enjoying Woodland Ridge today! Don't miss your opportunity to call this inviting home your own - schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Newer appliances
• New cabinetry

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DURABLE PLANK FLOORING
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETRY
• NEWER APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level home with ground-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.1 acre (50 x 100)

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with natural gas; No cooling system
• Interior features: Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 2.6% in Whitmore Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#279 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• South Lyon Community Schools (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #74 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.01%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,050
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -2.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $26,891
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $76,867
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48178

• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $713	-5% $682	+0% $651	+5% $619	+10% $588
Rent	-10% $523	-5% $587	+0% $651	+5% $714	+10% $778
Rate	-1.0pp $696	-0.5pp $673	base $651	+0.5pp $627	+1.0pp $604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11222 Shady Brook Ct Unit 367 South Lyon, MI	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,549	$0.92	0d	1	0.15mi
11803 Stoneridge Ct Unit 307 South Lyon, MI	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,569	$1.17	45d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $89,900 Active 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1322 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated home in the sought-after Woodland Ridge Manufactured Home Community in South Lyon! This peaceful, pet-friendly neighborhood offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening on the charming covered front porch. Inside, an open-concept layout filled with natural light showcases tasteful updates throughout. The spacious living and dining areas feature durable plank flooring, while the refreshed kitchen boasts contemporary finishes, brand-new cabinetry, newer appliances, and plenty of space for cooking and gathering. Additional highlights include new siding, new carpeting, tile flooring in the bathrooms, and ceiling fans in every room for enhanced comfort and energy efficiency. Laundry items are also included for your convenience. Residents of Woodland Ridge enjoy fantastic community amenities - take advantage of the pool, playscape, basketball court, gym, and clubhouse. With a lot rent of $895 per month (no surprises!) and a move-in-ready home that combines style and function, this is low-maintenance living at its best. Immediate Occupancy – move right in and start enjoying Woodland Ridge today! Don't miss your opportunity to call this inviting home your own - schedule your private showing today!

17. 2026-05-15
    listed $89,900 Active 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1322 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated home in the sought-after Woodland Ridge Manufactured Home Community in South Lyon! This peaceful, pet-friendly neighborhood offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening on the charming covered front porch. Inside, an open-concept layout filled with natural light showcases tasteful updates throughout. The spacious living and dining areas feature durable plank flooring, while the refreshed kitchen boasts contemporary finishes, brand-new cabinetry, newer appliances, and plenty of space for cooking and gathering. Additional highlights include new siding, new carpeting, tile flooring in the bathrooms, and ceiling fans in every room for enhanced comfort and energy efficiency. Laundry items are also included for your convenience. Residents of Woodland Ridge enjoy fantastic community amenities - take advantage of the pool, playscape, basketball court, gym, and clubhouse. With a lot rent of $895 per month (no surprises!) and a move-in-ready home that combines style and function, this is low-maintenance living at its best. Immediate Occupancy – move right in and start enjoying Woodland Ridge today! Don't miss your opportunity to call this inviting home your own - schedule your private showing today!

18. 2026-04-21
    historical
19. 2026-03-19
    price $89,900
20. 2026-03-18
    price $89,900
21. 2026-02-27
    price $95,000
22. 2026-02-26
    price $95,000
23. 2025-11-05
    price $99,900
24. 2025-11-04
    price $99,900
25. 2025-10-27
    price $105,000
26. 2025-10-27
    price $105,000
27. 2025-10-17
    listed $115,000 Active
28. 2025-10-17
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $6,779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,627
• After-tax cash flow: $6,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Lyon Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632250
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,419
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2372
• State rank: #74 of 540 in MI

Livability — Whitmore Lake

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #6864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 13,893
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 37,789
• Household income: $131,558
• Rent vs Own: 8.8% rent · 91.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 141.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.96%
• Current HPI: 197.5122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-21.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-17 Listed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-17 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2017): $35 · +28.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.