4827 Ventura Ln · Houston, TX 77021

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1950 8,050 sqft lot Est $265k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,050 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cullen Middle (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 324 students, 100% FRL); Yates H S (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 851 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,148/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 2532% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.36%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,188
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4755 Marietta Ln	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,628 (-6%)	3mo	$150,000	$92	82
5003 Elizabeth City St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,643 (-5%)	1mo	$268,388	$163	74
5003 Yesenia Palm St	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,643 (-5%)	3mo	$282,882	$172	73
5007 Elizabeth City St	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,643 (-5%)	2mo	$253,510	$154	73
5002 Elizabeth City St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,643 (-5%)	2mo	$277,884	$169	73
5005 Elizabeth City St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,643 (-5%)	2mo	$253,510	$154	72
5311 Dezirae Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,643 (-5%)	4mo	$273,769	$167	72
5009 Elizabeth City St	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,643 (-5%)	5mo	$253,510	$154	70
5118 Cortelyou Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,607 (-7%)	0mo	$169,900	$106	67
4902 Winfree Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-12%)	2mo	$169,500	$112	64
4826 Culmore Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-13%)	3mo	$279,000	$186	62
5318 Cortelyou Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+2%)	5mo	$235,000	$134	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,726
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $31,553
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77021

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,476/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $535	-5% $491	+0% $447	+5% $403	+10% $359
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $362	+0% $447	+5% $532	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $486	base $447	+0.5pp $407	+1.0pp $366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4907 Culmore Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,700	$1.50	18d	1	0.09mi
4907 Marietta Ln Unit 1494902P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$3,278	$2.06	15d	1	0.10mi
5101 Martin Luther King Blvd Unit MO54 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	13d	1	0.36mi
4977 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1396	$870	$0.62	25d	1	0.36mi
5116 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,316	$1.16	45d	1	0.46mi
5154 Griggs Rd Unit CAVE Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,420	$1.07	4d	1	0.47mi
6109 Wayland St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	0d	1	0.58mi
4465 N MacGregor Way Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1366	$940	$0.69	25d	1	0.64mi
5123 Dewberry St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$2,400	$1.73	45d	1	0.70mi
5813 England St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1473	$2,195	$1.49	5d	1	0.76mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	4d	1	0.82mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,225	$0.93	12d	1	0.82mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	23d	1	0.84mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	45d	1	0.84mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	45d	1	0.86mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,174	$0.89	0d	1	0.87mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,215	$0.92	0d	1	0.87mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5571 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	12d	1	0.87mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	9d	1	0.87mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	6d	1	0.87mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	45d	1	0.95mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	0d	1	0.95mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	19d	1	0.96mi
6731 New York St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2211	$2,100	$0.95	45d	1	1.22mi
3644 Griggs Rd Unit 1047940P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1399	$2,161	$1.54	3d	1	1.31mi
5835 Southmont St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	45d	1	1.31mi
4705 Idaho St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,500	$1.50	18d	1	1.32mi
3731 Alsace St Unit 1560804P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2002	$3,387	$1.69	4d	1	1.38mi
6926 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	0d	1	1.40mi
6928 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	0d	1	1.40mi
5317 Chennault Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,849	$1.15	0d	1	1.44mi
6809 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1921	$2,600	$1.35	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-17
   historical
6. 2026-03-16
   listed $154,900 Active
7. 2026-03-16
   listed $154,900 Active
8. 2020-05-09
   historical
9. 2020-04-20
   listed $180,000 Active
10. 2013-07-30
    historical
11. 2013-07-26
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2013-05-17
    status Pending
13. 2013-05-13
    listed $25,000 Active
14. 2013-03-07
    historical
15. 2011-05-09
    listed $68,000 Active
16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,476 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,476 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$4,476
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $3,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$772
• After-tax cash flow: $4,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,153
• Household income: $45,574
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2532.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% White 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.22%
• Current HPI: 230.2869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+127.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2020-05-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-04-20 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2013-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-07-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-13 Listed $25,000 HARMLS
• 2013-03-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-05-09 Listed $68,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,476 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.