420 2nd Ave E · Gildford, MT 59525

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1920 ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920
• Listed 59 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: 1.307 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Window coverings; Partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#109 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• North Star Elementary (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #126 of 339 in MT (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Star School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #197 of 293 statewide, top 71%, 114 students, 0% FRL); North Star 7-8 (math 50% / reading 70%, grade B, #8 of 146 statewide, top 6%, 36 students, 0% FRL); North Star High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #80 of 132 statewide, top 80%, 53 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,353 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $20,902
• Equity at exit: $79,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $73,526
• Equity at exit: $128,577

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59525

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,131/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $143,570

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-42	+0% $-87	+5% $-132	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-137	+0% $-87	+5% $-38	+10% $12
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-47	base $-87	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $159,000 Pending 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    status Active
19. 2026-04-01
    listed $159,000 Active
20. 2024-06-28
    status Active
21. 2024-05-01
    price $174,000
22. 2024-03-04
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,131 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,131 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,131
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$3,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$917
• After-tax cash flow: $-131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Star Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3000096
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,473
• Composite: 38.26/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #126 of 339 in MT

Livability — Gildford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #11053

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gildford, MT
• Population (ZIP): 307

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,841 people
• By 2030: 16,954 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 17,063 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 17,130 · +1.7%
• By 2075: 17,273 · +2.6%
• By 2100: 16,542 · -1.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 36% German 4% Polish 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 38.7% · R 56.9% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Current HPI: 211.7454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $159,000 HHLMLS
• 2024-06-28 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $174,000 HHLMLS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $179,000 HHLMLS

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,131 · +52.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.