657 N Hickory St · Centralia, IL 62801

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1940 7,664 sqft lot Est $47k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a corner lot, has a large living room, full unfinished basement, and comes with an extra lot.

Key facts

• 7,664 sq ft lot
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 5.8% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Schiller Elem School (262 students, 0% FRL); Centralia Jr High School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #517 of 665 statewide, top 79%, 604 students, 0% FRL); Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.15%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $47,385
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
657 N Hickory St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,053 (0%)	5mo	$65,000	$62	96
655 N Hickory St	0.01mi	2/1.0	984 (-7%)	5mo	$35,000	$36	85
218 N Hickory St	0.41mi	2/1.0	995 (-6%)	2mo	$45,000	$45	70
314 Howard St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,046 (-1%)	9mo	$25,000	$24	67
517 College Ave	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	2mo	$53,200	$58	65
232 N James Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-5%)	10mo	$45,000	$45	62
1124 Gary Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+0%)	10mo	$17,500	$17	58
20 Penco St	0.42mi	2/1.0	900 (-14%)	7mo	$67,000	$74	50
605 Gragg St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,112 (+6%)	10mo	$27,000	$24	50
20 Penco St	0.44mi	2/1.0	900 (-14%)	7mo	$67,000	$74	49
113 S Hickory St	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+14%)	6mo	$32,640	$27	46
1541 Knight St	0.74mi	2/2.0	980 (-7%)	11mo	$114,900	$117	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $11,871
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $39,296
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $618

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $370	+0% $351	+5% $333	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $267	-5% $309	+0% $351	+5% $393	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $368	base $351	+0.5pp $334	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $65,000 Closed
5. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $65,000 Closed
6. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $65,000 Closed
7. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $65,000 Closed
8. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-05
   historical
10. 2025-10-16
    status Pending
11. 2025-10-16
    historical
12. 2025-10-16
    historical
13. 2025-09-04
    price
14. 2025-08-12
    listed $65,000
15. 2025-08-12
    listed Active
16. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus $81,000
17. 2022-06-23
    soldstatus $81,000 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a corner lot, has a large living room, full unfinished basement, and comes with an extra lot.

18. 2022-06-23
    soldstatus $81,000 Closed 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a corner lot, has a large living room, full unfinished basement, and comes with an extra lot.

19. 2022-05-12
    historical Under Contract 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a corner lot, has a large living room, full unfinished basement, and comes with an extra lot.

20. 2022-05-03
    status Pending 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a corner lot, has a large living room, full unfinished basement, and comes with an extra lot.

21. 2022-04-27
    listed $62,900 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a corner lot, has a large living room, full unfinished basement, and comes with an extra lot.

22. 2022-04-27
    listed $62,900 Active 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a corner lot, has a large living room, full unfinished basement, and comes with an extra lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,447
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$818
• After-tax cash flow: $3,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Listed $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-23 Sold (MLS) $81,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-23 Sold (MLS) $81,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-12 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-03 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-27 Listed $62,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-27 Listed $62,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+34.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,447 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.