2617 S 225 Ave · Mannford, OK 74063

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1989

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Awesome view of Keystone Lake & Dam, 18x32 workshop. New vinyl Pella windows, new roof, pole barn & feed storage bldging, new kitchen appliances, easy access to H-51. Nice storm cellar, interior painting & carpet in process.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• New 20k driveway
• Built 1989

Tags

• 3 ACRE LOT
• NEW 20K DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.6% in Mannford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Keystone (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #327 of 513 in OK (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,371 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.19%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,001
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-15,184
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74063

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 336-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $375 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$795/yr (+$66/mo · 212.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$255
• After-tax cash flow: $1,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keystone
• NCES district ID: 4016470
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,147
• Composite: 24.9/100
• National rank: #12992
• State rank: #327 of 513 in OK

Livability — Mannford

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #8759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tulsa County · 640,811 people
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 31,370
• Household income: $73,842
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Tulsa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 723,846 people
• By 2030: 766,033 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 851,386 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 938,389 · +29.6%
• By 2075: 1,166,011 · +61.1%
• By 2100: 1,350,277 · +86.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulsa

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.3% · R 56.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.2pp toward D · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.09%
• Current HPI: 230.6336
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+9.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com
• 2005-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-16 Sold (MLS) $112,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2005-07-26 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2005-06-14 Listed $119,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1999-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.