4527 Greencove Cir · Dundalk, MD 21219

$507,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2001 5,985 sqft lot Est $406k · 25% over $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely stunning home in desirable Beechwood Estates. Open and modern, this floorplan offers plenty of updates throughout. Your Kitchen features newer stainless steel appliances that shine off the beautiful granite counters and oversized kitchen island. Sliding patio doors open onto a very large screened in porch that is great when you want to enjoy a nice sunset or have friends over for a crab feast. Located just up the street from the community pool, its a easy walk down the sidewalk carrying your towels. The freshly seeded backyard is fully fenced in with maintenance free vinyl, and shed for all your outdoor needs. Upstairs opens to 3 bedrooms with 2 full baths and gives plenty of space to spread out. Basement is insulated and has a great layout for finishing and includes a welled exit to the back yard. The roof was new in 2018 and paired with with a natural gas home generator you won t ever have to worry about the rain again! All the mechanicals have been well maintained and serviced. Don t miss this opportunity to own this terrific property!

Key facts

• 5,985 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property assessed as excellent condition; Below-grade finished living area (estimated)
• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee; includes common area maintenance and management; HOA amenities include an outdoor pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with inside access and garage door opener (1 garage space); Driveway parking (1 space); On-street parking (additional spaces); Total of 2 garage and parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling and appliances; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Architectural shingle roof; Combination construction; Excellent condition; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Combination construction materials; Architectural shingle roof; Other type foundation; Built above and below grade (finished areas); Shed (outbuilding)
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Shed; Sidewalks; Street lights; Front yard; Landscaped yard; Rear yard; Side yards

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven/range (single); Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Upgraded countertops; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level; Total: two full baths, one half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Crown moldings; Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Master bath; Bathroom with walk-in shower; Soaking tub; Stall shower; Tub/shower; Attic; Fully finished basement with windows and walkout stairs; Sump pump; Space for additional rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in the basement; Natural gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $507k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-919 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (40.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 6.2% in Dundalk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $334k; list at $507k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $302,004 (40.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $405,536
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4632 Greencove Cir	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,744 (-0%)	6mo	$505,000	$290	79
3 Bluecrab Ct	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,824 (+4%)	10mo	$401,500	$220	72
4610 Todd Point Ln	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,632 (-7%)	22mo	$439,900	$270	63
4 Oyster Ct	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,894 (+8%)	23mo	$440,000	$232	57
4404 Greencove Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,866 (+7%)	24mo	$385,000	$206	56
9109 Cove Point Rd	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,964 (+12%)	16mo	$442,500	$225	56
6805 River Drive Rd	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+3%)	12mo	$285,000	$158	47
3116 River Drive Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,520 (-13%)	6mo	$618,000	$407	43
3214 Lynch Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	19mo	$340,000	$221	28
3102 River Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (-13%)	19mo	$355,000	$232	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-140,782
• Equity at exit: $75,595

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-198,293
• Equity at exit: $43,836

Cash invested: $141,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21219

• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,659
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,741/yr
• Insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-919

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,184

Max offer price $344,605

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,750
• Closing costs: $15,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2919 Ritchie Ave Sparrows Point, MD	3.0	2.5	1551	$2,500	$1.61	24d	1	0.92mi
7863 Saint Fabian Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	5d	1	1.26mi
2507 Sycamore Ave Unit A Edgemere, MD	3.0	1.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	44d	1	1.27mi
804 Oakleigh Beach Rd Unit 1061330P Dundalk, MD	3.0	3.0	1980	$6,168	$3.12	2d	1	1.27mi
7860 Saint Bridget Ln Dundalk, MD	4.0	1.0	1216	$2,300	$1.89	24d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $507,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $507,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-22
   listed $515,000 Active
4. 2026-05-21
   historical $515,000
5. 2019-04-30
   soldstatus $334,000
6. 2019-04-25
   soldstatus $334,000 Closed 1065-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1065 chars)

   Absolutely stunning home in desirable Beechwood Estates. Open and modern, this floorplan offers plenty of updates throughout. Your Kitchen features newer stainless steel appliances that shine off the beautiful granite counters and oversized kitchen island. Sliding patio doors open onto a very large screened in porch that is great when you want to enjoy a nice sunset or have friends over for a crab feast. Located just up the street from the community pool, its a easy walk down the sidewalk carrying your towels. The freshly seeded backyard is fully fenced in with maintenance free vinyl, and shed for all your outdoor needs. Upstairs opens to 3 bedrooms with 2 full baths and gives plenty of space to spread out. Basement is insulated and has a great layout for finishing and includes a welled exit to the back yard. The roof was new in 2018 and paired with with a natural gas home generator you won t ever have to worry about the rain again! All the mechanicals have been well maintained and serviced. Don t miss this opportunity to own this terrific property!

7. 2019-03-25
   status Pending 1065-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1065 chars)

   Absolutely stunning home in desirable Beechwood Estates. Open and modern, this floorplan offers plenty of updates throughout. Your Kitchen features newer stainless steel appliances that shine off the beautiful granite counters and oversized kitchen island. Sliding patio doors open onto a very large screened in porch that is great when you want to enjoy a nice sunset or have friends over for a crab feast. Located just up the street from the community pool, its a easy walk down the sidewalk carrying your towels. The freshly seeded backyard is fully fenced in with maintenance free vinyl, and shed for all your outdoor needs. Upstairs opens to 3 bedrooms with 2 full baths and gives plenty of space to spread out. Basement is insulated and has a great layout for finishing and includes a welled exit to the back yard. The roof was new in 2018 and paired with with a natural gas home generator you won t ever have to worry about the rain again! All the mechanicals have been well maintained and serviced. Don t miss this opportunity to own this terrific property!

8. 2019-03-21
   listed $340,000 Active 1065-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1065 chars)

   Absolutely stunning home in desirable Beechwood Estates. Open and modern, this floorplan offers plenty of updates throughout. Your Kitchen features newer stainless steel appliances that shine off the beautiful granite counters and oversized kitchen island. Sliding patio doors open onto a very large screened in porch that is great when you want to enjoy a nice sunset or have friends over for a crab feast. Located just up the street from the community pool, its a easy walk down the sidewalk carrying your towels. The freshly seeded backyard is fully fenced in with maintenance free vinyl, and shed for all your outdoor needs. Upstairs opens to 3 bedrooms with 2 full baths and gives plenty of space to spread out. Basement is insulated and has a great layout for finishing and includes a welled exit to the back yard. The roof was new in 2018 and paired with with a natural gas home generator you won t ever have to worry about the rain again! All the mechanicals have been well maintained and serviced. Don t miss this opportunity to own this terrific property!

9. 2014-12-05
   soldstatus $273,000
10. 2014-11-21
    soldstatus $273,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    THIS HOUSE WILL WOW YOU! COOL OFF THIS SUMMER IN THE COMMUNITY POOL OR EAT CRABS ON THE BACK SCREENED DECK! MASTER SUITE BOAST DOUBLE VANITIES, SOAKING TUB, AND WALK-IN CLOSET, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND CONNECTS TO FAMILY ROOM WITH NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING. HOME IS MOVE IN READY WITH NEW FURNACE, AC, HWH, SUMP PUMP AND WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR. CALL FOR SHOWING TODAY!

11. 2014-11-21
    soldstatus $273,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    THIS HOUSE WILL WOW YOU! COOL OFF THIS SUMMER IN THE COMMUNITY POOL OR EAT CRABS ON THE BACK SCREENED DECK! MASTER SUITE BOAST DOUBLE VANITIES, SOAKING TUB, AND WALK-IN CLOSET, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND CONNECTS TO FAMILY ROOM WITH NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING. HOME IS MOVE IN READY WITH NEW FURNACE, AC, HWH, SUMP PUMP AND WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR. CALL FOR SHOWING TODAY!

12. 2014-09-30
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
13. 2014-09-26
    historical 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    THIS HOUSE WILL WOW YOU! COOL OFF THIS SUMMER IN THE COMMUNITY POOL OR EAT CRABS ON THE BACK SCREENED DECK! MASTER SUITE BOAST DOUBLE VANITIES, SOAKING TUB, AND WALK-IN CLOSET, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND CONNECTS TO FAMILY ROOM WITH NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING. HOME IS MOVE IN READY WITH NEW FURNACE, AC, HWH, SUMP PUMP AND WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR. CALL FOR SHOWING TODAY!

14. 2014-07-07
    price $279,900
15. 2014-05-31
    listed $279,900 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    THIS HOUSE WILL WOW YOU! COOL OFF THIS SUMMER IN THE COMMUNITY POOL OR EAT CRABS ON THE BACK SCREENED DECK! MASTER SUITE BOAST DOUBLE VANITIES, SOAKING TUB, AND WALK-IN CLOSET, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND CONNECTS TO FAMILY ROOM WITH NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING. HOME IS MOVE IN READY WITH NEW FURNACE, AC, HWH, SUMP PUMP AND WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR. CALL FOR SHOWING TODAY!

16. 2014-05-31
    listed $299,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    THIS HOUSE WILL WOW YOU! COOL OFF THIS SUMMER IN THE COMMUNITY POOL OR EAT CRABS ON THE BACK SCREENED DECK! MASTER SUITE BOAST DOUBLE VANITIES, SOAKING TUB, AND WALK-IN CLOSET, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND CONNECTS TO FAMILY ROOM WITH NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING. HOME IS MOVE IN READY WITH NEW FURNACE, AC, HWH, SUMP PUMP AND WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR. CALL FOR SHOWING TODAY!

17. 2014-05-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    THIS HOUSE WILL WOW YOU! COOL OFF THIS SUMMER IN THE COMMUNITY POOL OR EAT CRABS ON THE BACK SCREENED DECK! MASTER SUITE BOAST DOUBLE VANITIES, SOAKING TUB, AND WALK-IN CLOSET, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND CONNECTS TO FAMILY ROOM WITH NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING. HOME IS MOVE IN READY WITH NEW FURNACE, AC, HWH, SUMP PUMP AND WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR. CALL FOR SHOWING TODAY!

18. 2014-05-30
    historical
19. 2014-05-21
    price
20. 2014-04-28
    price
21. 2014-01-27
    listed Active
22. 2014-01-27
    listed $300,000
23. 2000-10-13
    soldstatus $44,080

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,741 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,134 · $428/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,400
• − Property taxes: −$4,741
• − Insurance: −$2,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,899
• − Management: −$2,899
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$14,749
• Taxable loss: −$20,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,911
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dundalk

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundalk, MD
• City population: 59,407
• Population (ZIP): 9,873

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.41%
• Current HPI: 263.3437
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1068.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $515,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-21 Coming Soon $515,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $334,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-25 Sold (MLS) $334,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-21 Listed $340,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $273,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-21 Sold (MLS) $273,000 MRIS
• 2014-11-21 Sold (MLS) $273,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-09-30 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-09-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-07-07 Price Changed $279,900 MRIS
• 2014-05-31 Listed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-31 Listed $299,900 MRIS
• 2014-05-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-05-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-21 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-04-28 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-01-27 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-01-27 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $44,080 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,741 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.