1308 New York 302 · Scotchtown, NY 12566

$389,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily · 364 Days on market

Built 1942 $258/sqft · 12% below area Est $444k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1308 Route 302, Bullville, NY! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home offers 1,506 sq ft of comfortable living space on a generous 2.3-acre lot. Built in 1942 and thoughtfully renovated in 2023, this property combines classic appeal with modern updates. Step inside to discover a spacious layout with 6 rooms, perfect for a growing family or those seeking extra space. The interior features both carpet and hardwood flooring, with hot air heating for year-round comfort. A full basement provides ample storage or potential for future finishing. Outside, you'll appreciate the expansive 2.3-acre lot, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. A detached garage provides convenient parking and additional storage. Located in the desirable Pine Bush School District, this property offers a balance of rural tranquility and convenient access to local amenities. With its solid structure, recent renovations, and sizable lot, 1308 Route 302 presents a wonderful opportunity to own a piece of Bullville's charm. Don't miss your chance to make this house your home!

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Full basement
• Detached garage

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PINE BUSH SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-900 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (41.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $226,417 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.91%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,364
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: -12.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1308 Route 302	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,506 (0%)	7mo	$350,000	$232	93
2888 State Route 17k	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+2%)	4mo	$399,000	$260	67
2607 State Route 17k	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-13%)	16mo	$125,500	$96	34
2607 State Route 17k #13	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	22mo	$140,000	$104	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $104,042
• Equity at exit: $296,658

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $344,538
• Equity at exit: $589,939

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12566

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,835/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,403

Max offer price $258,828

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-631	-5% $-765	+0% $-900	+5% $-1,034	+10% $-1,168
Rent	-10% $-1,078	-5% $-989	+0% $-900	+5% $-810	+10% $-721
Rate	-1.0pp $-704	-0.5pp $-801	base $-900	+0.5pp $-1,000	+1.0pp $-1,103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Active 360 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,000 Active 357 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,000 Active 355 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,000 Active 354 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $389,000 Active 351 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 350 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 349 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 348 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 347 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Active 346 DOM
15. 2025-06-16
    listed $389,000 Active 1136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1136 chars)

    Welcome to 1308 Route 302, Bullville, NY! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home offers 1,506 sq ft of comfortable living space on a generous 2.3-acre lot. Built in 1942 and thoughtfully renovated in 2023, this property combines classic appeal with modern updates. Step inside to discover a spacious layout with 6 rooms, perfect for a growing family or those seeking extra space. The interior features both carpet and hardwood flooring, with hot air heating for year-round comfort. A full basement provides ample storage or potential for future finishing. Outside, you'll appreciate the expansive 2.3-acre lot, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. A detached garage provides convenient parking and additional storage. Located in the desirable Pine Bush School District, this property offers a balance of rural tranquility and convenient access to local amenities. With its solid structure, recent renovations, and sizable lot, 1308 Route 302 presents a wonderful opportunity to own a piece of Bullville's charm. Don't miss your chance to make this house your home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,835
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$18,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,335
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scotchtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #9142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,718

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Current HPI: 329.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-16 Listed $389,000 Fizber.com